Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2016-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6569 14611 2034 509 0 0 0 0
OW 0 398 262 879 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 180 874 476 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 275 624 159 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 652 885 199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 6387 9164 564
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6276 15250 1325 264 0 0 0 0
OW 0 316 746 741 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 152 1295 275 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 154 764 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 485 916 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 5986 9492 1197
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5024 15784 1219 168 1 0 0 0
OW 0 764 745 504 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 103 309 1469 212 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 847 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 230 916 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2584 12255 2434
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4014 15724 1480 229 2 0 0 0
OW 0 925 761 300 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 232 423 1242 280 32 0 0
ODI 0 30 7 316 847 150 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 431 609 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 2935 10825 3915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4014 15791 1683 329 0 0 0 0
OW 0 771 527 323 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 316 442 986 364 39 0 0
ODI 0 33 19 421 673 164 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 420 535 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 153 2988 10798 3915

Date: 2016-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5164 13722 1283 239 0 0 0 0
OW 0 827 849 375 13 1 0 0
VODI 0 107 585 1250 250 36 7 0
ODI 0 19 15 313 786 411 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 223 849 245 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2258 11240 4766
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5164 13656 1374 311 2 0 0 0
OW 0 830 833 415 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 162 475 994 276 31 6 0
ODI 0 27 50 451 622 478 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 328 664 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 2382 11209 4766

Date: 2016-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3139 14624 1466 355 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1081 1136 591 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 243 376 1388 83 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 176 926 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 236 940 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1392 9619 8008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3139 14674 1198 494 4 0 0 0
OW 0 932 891 334 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 228 725 1079 105 7 0 0
ODI 0 78 149 460 462 132 17 0
CDI 0 36 15 145 603 654 209 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 85 1598 9404 8008

Date: 2016-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4440 12676 1096 337 10 0 0 0
OW 0 1088 974 695 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 320 651 1610 222 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 12 344 552 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 393 671 11 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 2607 10134 6763
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4440 12505 1176 399 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1089 633 485 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 399 631 1309 242 0 0 0
ODI 0 91 206 450 335 151 0 0
CDI 0 49 84 302 365 508 62 2
VCDI 0 6 3 62 275 2722 10083 6762

Date: 2016-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3000 11947 1993 260 0 0 0 0
OW 0 745 787 450 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 250 806 1720 662 88 0 0
ODI 0 5 77 662 557 422 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 311 665 168 5
VCDI 0 0 0 10 85 1504 9299 9294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3000 12007 2528 527 80 0 0 0
OW 0 488 549 566 95 0 0 0
VODI 0 413 464 1232 590 173 0 0
ODI 0 35 119 520 324 617 30 0
CDI 0 4 3 261 275 412 351 10
VCDI 0 0 0 66 275 1477 9086 9289


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