Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2016-10-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2016-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 90061 41183 4874 942 16 0 0 0
OW 0 1838 958 1402 139 0 0 0
VODI 0 164 390 1787 805 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 622 1269 445 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 1307 2362 374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 177 14141 20897 789
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 89245 40551 5250 713 8 0 0 0
OW 0 1775 1596 1238 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 231 572 2184 534 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 16 694 1421 236 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 1519 2151 102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 130 13517 20739 2435
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 90447 38751 3582 584 1 0 0 0
OW 50 2343 1327 926 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 1272 1070 2799 460 11 0 0
ODI 0 40 0 339 1932 149 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 810 2433 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 8170 26169 2978
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2016-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 85829 41927 3265 867 24 0 0 0
OW 88 2349 1307 610 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 1298 1326 2731 643 50 0 0
ODI 0 98 41 667 1693 431 1 0
CDI 0 2 1 39 831 1952 372 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 7629 24895 5891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 85917 42247 3519 971 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1824 986 606 103 0 0 0
VODI 0 1480 1382 2336 664 59 0 0
ODI 0 123 53 920 1429 331 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 80 964 1932 427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 189 7740 24840 5891

Date: 2016-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 86407 38588 4117 918 30 0 0 0
OW 154 2195 1283 665 107 1 0 0
VODI 0 1276 1357 3129 489 70 8 0
ODI 0 110 69 896 1678 672 66 0
CDI 0 6 0 72 688 1807 674 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 132 9546 24204 5629
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 86512 38805 4290 971 28 0 0 0
OW 49 1788 1192 769 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 1400 1151 2665 489 47 6 0
ODI 0 182 193 1210 1414 615 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 941 1530 615 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 153 9904 24272 5629

Date: 2016-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 86021 39108 4099 976 18 0 0 0
OW 0 2286 1867 1105 92 0 0 0
VODI 0 566 843 3223 385 4 0 0
ODI 0 20 0 366 2482 138 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 695 2428 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 8652 22191 9309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 85961 38427 3644 1118 92 0 0 0
OW 60 1760 1300 607 90 3 0 0
VODI 0 1430 1424 2082 370 43 2 0
ODI 0 303 420 1630 1329 232 28 0
CDI 0 59 21 263 1488 1377 247 0
VCDI 0 1 0 6 364 9567 21991 9309

Date: 2016-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 84832 37232 3478 2445 11 0 0 0
OW 0 2101 1252 1147 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 878 1249 3388 662 23 0 0
ODI 0 62 65 1199 1992 181 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 1146 1726 67 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 169 10172 22660 8735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 84819 36363 3391 2481 123 0 0 0
OW 13 2336 925 787 165 22 0 0
VODI 0 1283 1112 2250 531 26 0 0
ODI 0 235 499 1946 1217 223 18 0
CDI 0 50 114 723 1437 1088 123 2
VCDI 0 6 3 82 579 10743 22599 8734

Date: 2016-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 82138 36643 6304 825 2 0 0 0
OW 8 1667 1129 889 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 802 1509 2670 864 148 0 0
ODI 0 37 314 1708 1570 965 6 0
CDI 0 0 5 321 1196 1593 388 5
VCDI 0 0 0 12 460 6766 24667 11383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 82146 35985 6609 1135 147 0 0 0
OW 0 1421 968 848 181 53 0 0
VODI 0 1418 1103 1932 791 424 0 0
ODI 0 310 512 1505 1003 1015 39 0
CDI 0 15 68 818 1134 1182 616 10
VCDI 0 0 1 187 890 6798 24406 11378


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