Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results
  Ice thickness stat.s ++
  Contingency tables

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-11-13

Data source: AWI SMOS sea ice thickness

Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<0.3m
c20.3 - 0.6m
c30.6 - 1m
c4>1m

Model vs. SMOS observations, sea ice thickness contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 193084 22148 5 0 0
c1 624 18395 7593 1875 0
c2 8 4110 7294 6806 0
c3 1 736 4560 8589 0
c4 5 28 988 2106 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 186298 19959 7 0 0
c1 1194 19153 5495 2110 0
c2 61 4654 9252 7918 0
c3 1 917 4042 7833 0
c4 5 74 508 1891 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 170000 17059 8 0 0
c1 762 20287 3217 1565 0
c2 34 3577 7846 6482 0
c3 0 733 2639 6735 0
c4 6 158 547 2480 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 188811 17042 12 0 0
c1 715 20680 3033 442 0
c2 19 2704 7414 5578 0
c3 0 712 2145 4340 0
c4 6 175 597 1710 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 188848 17006 14 0 0
c1 678 20660 3057 424 0
c2 18 2722 7367 5487 0
c3 1 724 2137 4378 0
c4 6 201 626 1781 0

Date: 2025-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 184269 16671 25 0 0
c1 376 18858 2862 386 0
c2 30 2625 6494 4863 0
c3 6 387 1785 3033 0
c4 6 590 728 2028 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 184241 16683 20 0 0
c1 405 18799 2928 418 0
c2 28 2661 6509 4775 0
c3 7 366 1741 3077 0
c4 6 622 696 2040 0

Date: 2025-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 176551 16025 47 0 0
c1 188 22506 3664 437 0
c2 43 2468 5589 5156 0
c3 33 352 1462 2766 0
c4 11 565 993 1565 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 176375 15839 52 0 0
c1 361 21048 2530 256 0
c2 36 4075 6521 5091 0
c3 41 537 1751 3231 0
c4 13 417 901 1346 0

Date: 2025-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 166973 14433 56 0 0
c1 406 23634 4831 666 0
c2 22 2075 8536 8930 0
c3 17 364 1542 2616 0
c4 6 376 1146 1597 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 166935 14177 106 9 0
c1 448 22635 3707 605 0
c2 18 3307 9306 8208 0
c3 17 468 1962 3647 0
c4 6 295 1030 1340 0

Date: 2025-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 173139 12480 39 4 0
c1 1092 22894 4526 944 0
c2 28 2052 4748 4378 0
c3 9 525 1329 5089 0
c4 6 180 893 1637 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 173075 12926 64 78 0
c1 1137 20787 3070 710 0
c2 42 3562 6044 3948 0
c3 14 699 1475 5692 0
c4 6 157 882 1624 0


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