Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results
  Ice thickness stat.s ++
  Contingency tables

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-11-06

Data source: AWI SMOS sea ice thickness

Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<0.3m
c20.3 - 0.6m
c30.6 - 1m
c4>1m

Model vs. SMOS observations, sea ice thickness contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 209700 18585 17 0 0
c1 1016 23366 6324 1599 0
c2 28 9314 11401 4489 0
c3 10 4634 13146 6061 0
c4 5 233 2281 4604 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 197019 21657 2 1 0
c1 1564 25397 6624 1553 0
c2 32 5482 10529 6145 0
c3 8 2804 12571 7490 0
c4 5 70 1217 4041 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 197040 21555 14 0 0
c1 1024 21085 7364 1434 0
c2 29 2888 8047 7025 0
c3 4 1040 8963 6414 0
c4 5 94 1704 3622 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 188123 21552 30 1 0
c1 647 17350 6648 1574 0
c2 6 3300 6997 6218 0
c3 1 688 6213 8001 0
c4 5 16 1196 2319 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 188236 21371 25 0 0
c1 531 17562 6754 1586 0
c2 9 3194 6677 5929 0
c3 1 754 6405 8209 0
c4 5 25 1223 2389 0

Date: 2025-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 189896 20667 6 0 0
c1 917 19190 7048 2288 0
c2 71 4584 9344 8154 0
c3 1 995 4816 9384 0
c4 5 64 988 2517 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 190050 20646 6 0 0
c1 758 19227 6762 2300 0
c2 76 4460 9246 7825 0
c3 1 1098 5168 9483 0
c4 5 69 1020 2735 0

Date: 2025-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 193846 18790 2 0 0
c1 658 21121 4809 1546 0
c2 26 3824 8125 7553 0
c3 0 914 3253 8568 0
c4 6 121 658 2391 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 193499 20099 4 0 0
c1 971 18711 4187 1457 0
c2 60 4821 8778 7801 0
c3 0 1066 3562 8957 0
c4 6 73 316 1843 0

Date: 2025-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 191536 18141 1 0 0
c1 799 21563 2641 1133 0
c2 55 3196 7621 6599 0
c3 0 719 2343 6081 0
c4 6 178 514 2148 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 190952 18504 4 0 0
c1 1330 19001 2655 1112 0
c2 108 5028 7858 7311 0
c3 0 1163 2248 5973 0
c4 6 101 355 1565 0

Date: 2025-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 176427 15475 7 0 0
c1 684 19274 3178 551 0
c2 26 2783 6315 5992 0
c3 0 270 1523 3446 0
c4 6 431 538 1602 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 175346 16181 31 0 0
c1 1680 16584 2828 712 0
c2 111 4685 6785 6154 0
c3 0 382 1456 3578 0
c4 6 401 461 1147 0


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