Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results
  Ice thickness stat.s ++
  Contingency tables

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-10-30

Data source: AWI SMOS sea ice thickness

Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<0.3m
c20.3 - 0.6m
c30.6 - 1m
c4>1m

Model vs. SMOS observations, sea ice thickness contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 174341 22770 13 0 0
c1 2736 22534 3332 1573 0
c2 16 10150 6829 3611 8
c3 3 9687 10105 5089 0
c4 13 1903 2847 3897 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 203884 20489 22 0 0
c1 606 20850 2548 1367 0
c2 2 8280 7887 4525 0
c3 0 9364 10778 4965 0
c4 5 2057 3201 2999 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 205196 18696 14 0 0
c1 306 24636 3358 396 0
c2 10 9847 8833 3887 0
c3 16 3946 12955 3571 0
c4 5 303 2424 5074 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 199450 19858 2 0 0
c1 1011 32039 4728 718 0
c2 34 11275 10087 5151 0
c3 12 5212 12871 5678 0
c4 5 214 2524 4135 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 199416 19850 2 0 0
c1 1042 32326 4709 767 0
c2 33 10374 9233 4951 0
c3 16 5656 13745 5956 0
c4 5 392 2523 4008 0

Date: 2025-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 202929 20752 32 0 0
c1 1315 22523 6495 1591 0
c2 46 6616 11437 5785 0
c3 3 3697 12640 6692 0
c4 5 134 1406 4089 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 202955 20992 38 0 0
c1 1288 22355 6414 1669 0
c2 45 6375 10436 5705 0
c3 5 3751 13595 6850 0
c4 5 249 1527 3933 0

Date: 2025-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 195880 20600 1 0 0
c1 1266 22209 9879 1596 0
c2 26 3532 7794 5878 0
c3 3 1492 10590 5812 0
c4 5 82 2131 4625 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 195411 20975 3 0 0
c1 1623 20097 8228 1749 0
c2 81 4154 8180 5879 0
c3 60 2493 12946 7132 0
c4 5 196 1038 3151 0

Date: 2025-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 187385 22353 22 2 0
c1 760 16931 6329 1784 0
c2 3 2498 7558 5354 0
c3 1 670 8431 6665 0
c4 5 59 1433 3237 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 186898 22119 39 9 0
c1 1207 16014 5934 2125 0
c2 34 3229 7074 4343 0
c3 10 1029 10121 7975 0
c4 5 120 605 2590 0

Date: 2025-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 193084 22148 5 0 0
c1 624 18395 7593 1875 0
c2 8 4110 7294 6806 0
c3 1 736 4560 8589 0
c4 5 28 988 2106 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 192765 21715 8 0 0
c1 888 17323 7199 2281 0
c2 59 4759 6687 6616 0
c3 5 1590 5957 8721 0
c4 5 30 589 1758 0


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