Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results
  Ice thickness stat.s ++
  Contingency tables

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-10-23

Data source: AWI SMOS sea ice thickness

Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<0.3m
c20.3 - 0.6m
c30.6 - 1m
c4>1m

Model vs. SMOS observations, sea ice thickness contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 212831 20028 41 3 0
c1 2317 20223 3069 452 0
c2 21 10370 5603 1211 0
c3 2 8082 9762 5461 0
c4 5 1317 1721 1999 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 206262 19933 8 16 0
c1 1379 17463 2498 1877 0
c2 15 8822 5790 2165 0
c3 0 6857 6441 4178 0
c4 5 1634 1948 2754 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 216356 23924 5 0 0
c1 954 19928 3360 1034 0
c2 13 11318 7252 2261 0
c3 4 9453 8469 5808 0
c4 5 1964 2467 2923 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 201343 21333 40 5 0
c1 511 17457 3504 1724 0
c2 4 9002 6131 3087 0
c3 5 8614 8337 4064 0
c4 6 1702 2633 3838 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 201306 21787 38 2 0
c1 549 17068 3534 1884 0
c2 3 8988 5662 2889 0
c3 2 8152 8502 4038 0
c4 9 2113 2909 3905 0

Date: 2025-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 193096 22443 24 0 0
c1 550 20380 2855 1725 0
c2 25 8824 7909 3379 0
c3 9 8975 10557 4508 0
c4 5 2111 3267 3851 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 193131 22836 24 0 0
c1 526 19945 3062 1808 0
c2 19 8851 7541 3314 0
c3 4 8644 10456 4506 0
c4 5 2457 3529 3835 0

Date: 2025-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 198898 20746 7 0 0
c1 351 28745 3238 496 0
c2 0 10354 7540 4929 0
c3 1 3577 12632 3973 0
c4 5 542 2845 4253 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 198494 21817 7 0 0
c1 746 23395 2490 982 0
c2 8 8732 8357 4265 0
c3 2 8217 12050 5223 0
c4 5 1803 3358 3181 0

Date: 2025-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 209806 21422 8 0 0
c1 619 34220 3784 636 0
c2 34 11699 9023 4359 0
c3 5 4782 13423 4817 0
c4 5 187 2435 4333 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 209449 23668 9 0 0
c1 888 27917 3161 673 0
c2 67 10979 9591 4249 0
c3 43 8243 12953 5789 0
c4 22 1503 2959 3434 0

Date: 2025-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 209700 18585 17 0 0
c1 1016 23366 6324 1599 0
c2 28 9314 11401 4489 0
c3 10 4634 13146 6061 0
c4 5 233 2281 4604 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 209183 19523 88 5 0
c1 1333 18674 5735 1389 0
c2 94 9796 11014 4739 0
c3 81 6986 13393 6779 0
c4 68 1153 2939 3841 0


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