Description of algorithm
Interpretation of results
  Ice thickness stat.s ++
  Contingency tables

Validation of ice thickness - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-10-16

Data source: AWI SMOS sea ice thickness

Definition of categories:

Category   Sea ice thickness   
c1<0.3m
c20.3 - 0.6m
c30.6 - 1m
c4>1m

Model vs. SMOS observations, sea ice thickness contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2025-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2025-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 225294 20689 1 0 0
c1 3036 20342 1252 601 0
c2 20 11790 3774 1414 0
c3 1 9038 10291 6389 0
c4 9 2860 2800 3254 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 212440 19327 15 4 0
c1 2434 20569 1223 533 0
c2 24 12145 4155 1264 0
c3 2 8726 10459 5524 0
c4 5 1383 1781 1958 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 212794 20006 23 5 0
c1 2106 20079 1209 533 0
c2 0 11081 4193 1200 0
c3 0 9308 10007 5110 0
c4 5 1676 2201 2435 0

Date: 2025-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 214334 21692 0 0 0
c1 1172 17189 3729 1108 0
c2 36 9110 5639 1779 0
c3 2 6682 7391 4434 0
c4 5 1243 1749 2278 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 214205 22323 0 0 0
c1 1332 17105 3754 1032 0
c2 5 8183 5410 1779 0
c3 2 6777 6894 4275 0
c4 5 1528 2450 2513 0

Date: 2025-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 204291 20315 0 0 0
c1 554 16208 2927 1225 0
c2 23 9765 6271 1908 0
c3 2 8784 6742 4258 0
c4 5 2071 2419 3484 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 203226 21412 2 0 0
c1 1613 18636 2968 1339 0
c2 27 7964 5776 1964 0
c3 4 7025 6723 3874 0
c4 5 2106 2890 3698 0

Date: 2025-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 199063 24370 7 0 0
c1 557 16806 3449 1822 0
c2 8 8603 6354 2321 0
c3 0 8512 8000 3819 0
c4 11 1708 2358 3312 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 198133 24995 253 41 0
c1 1460 19796 3294 1925 0
c2 30 6871 5868 2102 0
c3 5 6392 7840 3750 0
c4 11 1945 2913 3456 0

Date: 2025-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 174341 22770 13 0 0
c1 2736 22534 3332 1573 0
c2 16 10150 6829 3611 8
c3 3 9687 10105 5089 0
c4 13 1903 2847 3897 0
observations
open c1 c2 c3 c4
m
o
d
e
l		 open 173754 23776 18 0 0
c1 3335 25569 3463 1728 0
c2 3 8433 6510 3253 8
c3 4 6782 9934 5045 0
c4 13 2484 3201 4144 0


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