Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-10-23

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 499 2027 172 214 13 0 0 0
OW 0 2 26 188 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 136 163 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 357 93 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 234 642 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 5866 15138 10948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 499 2021 177 313 55 0 0 0
OW 0 8 18 158 145 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 67 384 59 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 179 271 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 73 663 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5617 15114 10948

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 690 282 7 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 20 4 59 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 60 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 140 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 962 702 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 690 268 3 27 2 0 0 0
OW 0 14 5 47 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 2 38 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 8 26 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 168 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 968 699 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 544 120 223 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 33 252 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 142 244 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 160 293 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 227 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 609 4839 2117
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 523 96 241 10 0 0 0
OW 0 47 47 138 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 12 153 96 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 96 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 131 165 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 907 4868 2117

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 491 1543 126 254 24 0 0 0
OW 0 1 18 173 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 73 246 16 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 239 412 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 412 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 180 1162 113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 491 1525 124 302 88 12 0 0
OW 0 19 20 116 97 25 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 83 183 55 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 179 159 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 367 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 402 1204 113

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 144 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 214 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 139 661 202 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 858 413 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 543 2924 1001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 13 44 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 73 73 8 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 53 136 109 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 104 307 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 57 520 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1131 3341 1006

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 453 187 253 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 38 655 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 417 766 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 634 316 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 142 460 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 339 458 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 456 196 426 22 0 0 0
OW 0 6 29 615 298 9 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 240 581 118 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 479 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 188 438 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 391 496 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6196 109 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6206 109 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11315 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11315 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6616 2356 98 97 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1 28 204 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 154 153 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 277 195 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 108 134 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 573 625 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6616 2336 77 90 34 0 0 0
OW 0 21 48 172 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 162 98 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 151 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 266 199 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 677 607 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12074 857 11 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12074 857 11 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4859 619 16 1 0 0 0 0
OW 6 49 19 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 38 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 9 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 28 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 16 76 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4846 582 12 0 0 0 0 0
OW 19 61 7 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 15 22 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 23 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 21 19 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 34 16 76 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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