Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-09-11

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-15

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 718 2858 9 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 404 269 496 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 1670 615 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 2951 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1602 12229 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 9034 3985 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 718 2584 21 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 639 176 400 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 82 1546 1031 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 223 2977 1005 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1105 10166 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10069 3956 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1136 130 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 31 339 23 11 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 6 60 8 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 84 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 139 356 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 562 192 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1049 79 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 118 300 26 6 2 1 0 0
VODI 0 92 3 53 67 16 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 20 36 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 131 356 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 509 191 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1401 3469 37 48 0 0 0 0
OW 23 1084 231 373 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 12 599 166 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 579 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 161 875 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 311 575 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1014 2433 24 55 0 0 0 0
OW 410 1865 126 197 2 3 0 0
VODI 0 269 129 565 149 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 207 442 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 315 801 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 243 469 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3849 1011 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 210 38 44 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 149 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 210 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 29 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3849 898 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 314 31 112 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 5 109 254 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1868 2956 39 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 215 168 389 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 765 113 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 358 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 194 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 84 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1868 2791 76 37 0 0 0 0
OW 0 376 123 430 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 11 703 365 93 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 249 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2236 1416 7 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 257 108 224 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 190 138 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 261 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 303 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2236 1225 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 397 84 237 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 31 188 250 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 183 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 187 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6162 155 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6162 155 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9891 1452 30 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 17 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 31 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 57 4 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9887 1434 28 19 0 0 0 0
OW 4 62 16 29 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 5 31 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 14 20 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 28 28 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 39 4 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4649 1054 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 0 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4649 1042 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 0 0 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 46 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8532 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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