Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-08-28

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1309 2649 55 33 0 0 0 0
OW 1 718 114 200 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 183 165 1603 350 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 26 634 9442 1570 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 4503 9593 891 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1819 1024 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1300 2524 42 19 0 0 0 0
OW 10 816 124 189 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 204 173 1634 384 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 21 630 9162 1595 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 4749 9316 862 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2071 1053 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 579 480 22 25 0 0 0 0
OW 16 334 22 46 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 7 138 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 21 1 50 20 2 0 0
CDI 0 19 0 10 121 283 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 673 112 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 573 451 20 22 0 0 0 0
OW 22 357 24 41 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 7 148 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 1 48 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 18 0 10 130 288 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 670 112 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 750 1524 21 17 0 0 0 0
OW 716 1868 236 246 15 1 0 0
VODI 0 112 162 929 65 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 350 863 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 691 851 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 359 126 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 744 1339 12 12 0 0 0 0
OW 722 1822 186 225 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 341 213 841 37 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 441 705 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 871 791 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 420 126 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3556 851 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 236 485 32 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 40 294 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 92 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3524 794 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 268 535 23 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 49 298 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 81 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1549 1762 7 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 914 188 143 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 100 1029 568 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 856 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1544 1675 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 990 170 124 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 122 1044 623 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 801 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2377 1612 10 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 303 101 112 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 43 329 163 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 152 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2377 1558 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 356 103 94 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 47 352 161 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 154 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6312 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6310 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9682 1114 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 6 324 0 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 176 61 68 2 1 0 0
ODI 0 15 5 74 40 31 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 43 14 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9679 1115 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 9 322 1 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 191 61 80 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 65 28 23 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 55 23 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5566 93 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 4 47 0 6 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 3 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5563 65 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 7 72 0 8 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 0 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8517 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8518 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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