Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-08-14

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 991 2680 22 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 769 314 429 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 21 1507 523 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 10727 349 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1365 10044 216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 918 5008 941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 991 2399 42 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 913 148 229 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 139 167 1218 441 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 553 8987 916 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3180 9403 1052 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 991 4172 941

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 475 384 7 17 2 0 0 0
OW 24 181 20 33 7 0 0 0
VODI 1 21 2 127 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 63 261 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 582 300 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 34 162 291 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 462 320 5 16 4 0 0 0
OW 25 165 10 12 9 0 0 0
VODI 13 83 13 57 11 2 0 0
ODI 0 20 2 118 81 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 51 754 165 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 80 294 293 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 772 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1165 562 640 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 30 2201 273 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 2131 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 254 1732 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 76 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 575 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 979 190 144 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 386 405 2291 202 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 456 1961 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 495 1441 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 291 55 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2567 1351 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 58 846 178 128 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 15 425 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2485 700 8 0 0 0 0 0
OW 140 1389 84 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 101 531 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 51 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1048 1854 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 101 747 281 371 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 9 709 193 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 1864 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1023 1603 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 126 920 184 123 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 105 955 757 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 1340 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2097 1552 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 12 350 113 181 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 10 321 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 535 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1961 1288 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 148 544 68 112 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 74 51 345 55 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 573 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6201 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 86 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6184 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 103 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9417 1690 17 1 0 0 0 0
OW 31 102 41 62 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 4 70 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 53 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 74 61 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 18 9 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9403 1380 30 21 0 0 0 0
OW 45 410 28 60 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 50 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 26 48 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 57 71 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5215 424 14 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 1 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5215 426 13 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 2 32 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8114 359 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 11 34 0 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8111 353 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 14 36 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 16 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15704 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15625 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 121 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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