Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-08-07

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-11

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 1956 50 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 832 134 210 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 286 162 889 372 7 0 0
ODI 0 43 39 445 4112 983 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 5678 14125 1460 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1331 2982 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 1941 51 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 846 118 193 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 290 178 917 369 7 0 0
ODI 0 40 38 442 4219 1164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 5576 13662 1583 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1613 2859 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 389 344 5 16 2 0 0 0
OW 20 206 13 31 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 11 99 29 5 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 82 39 33 10 0
CDI 0 2 1 30 170 425 214 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 57 62 677 31
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 392 333 6 6 0 0 0 0
OW 17 212 13 35 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 12 107 35 7 0 0
ODI 0 21 2 87 55 42 11 0
CDI 0 1 1 23 156 405 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 57 71 690 31

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 463 37 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 221 109 150 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 97 2789 505 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 323 2342 267 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 432 1336 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 239 385 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 445 23 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 242 126 201 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 94 2802 551 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 260 2249 176 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 479 1416 228 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 250 405 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1836 1314 14 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 755 236 166 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 121 113 806 59 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 151 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1836 1208 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 839 239 152 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 118 810 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 163 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 319 2411 25 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 841 209 269 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 62 804 170 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 1249 465 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 225 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 319 2311 23 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 927 199 303 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 74 754 201 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 1106 446 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 41 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1568 1530 12 2 0 0 0 0
OW 368 340 89 111 1 0 0 0
VODI 55 50 46 278 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 430 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 268 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1510 1518 11 0 0 0 0 0
OW 435 358 93 122 0 0 0 0
VODI 46 44 43 267 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 387 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 298 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5500 628 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 6 128 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 8 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5506 624 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 9 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9457 708 3 17 6 0 0 0
OW 118 897 48 123 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 0 27 62 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 37 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 36 75 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9460 730 3 7 6 0 0 0
OW 115 876 48 132 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 0 29 61 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 43 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 34 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5142 482 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 28 9 12 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5136 469 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 34 22 14 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 28 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7782 627 1 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 93 0 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7782 619 1 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 100 0 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14721 659 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 228 13 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 16 45 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14721 634 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 252 14 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 16 45 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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