Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-08-07

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-11

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 2171 45 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 946 324 445 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 1147 394 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 7717 186 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2069 15265 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 995 4333 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 698 1941 51 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 846 118 193 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 290 178 917 369 7 0 0
ODI 0 40 38 442 4219 1164 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 5576 13662 1583 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1613 2859 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 408 414 6 9 0 0 0 0
OW 1 203 21 63 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 140 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 37 64 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 11 152 246 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 63 279 897 31
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 392 333 6 6 0 0 0 0
OW 17 212 13 35 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 12 107 35 7 0 0
ODI 0 21 2 87 55 42 11 0
CDI 0 1 1 23 156 405 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 57 71 690 31

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 507 32 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 202 207 399 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 2797 297 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 2802 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 184 1689 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 136 626 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 445 23 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 242 126 201 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 94 2802 551 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 260 2249 176 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 479 1416 228 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 250 405 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1836 1411 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 775 345 232 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 17 801 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 184 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1836 1208 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 839 239 152 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 118 810 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 163 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 319 2569 8 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 756 276 262 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 12 848 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 1384 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 146 449 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 319 2311 23 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 927 199 303 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 74 754 201 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 1106 446 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 41 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1637 1629 10 1 0 0 0 0
OW 354 291 131 121 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 362 70 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 676 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1510 1518 11 0 0 0 0 0
OW 435 358 93 122 0 0 0 0
VODI 46 44 43 267 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 387 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 298 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5506 648 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 133 8 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 2 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5506 624 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 9 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9513 1053 12 12 0 0 0 0
OW 62 576 39 107 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 66 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 93 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9460 730 3 7 6 0 0 0
OW 115 876 48 132 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 0 29 61 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 43 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 34 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5156 487 8 0 0 0 0 0
OW 14 4 11 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5136 469 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 34 22 14 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 28 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7782 686 1 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 0 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 8 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7782 619 1 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 100 0 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14721 712 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 222 19 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 10 32 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14721 634 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 252 14 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 16 45 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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