Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-08-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118517 13278 157 118 2 0 0 0
OW 424 4083 977 1775 12 0 0 0
VODI 38 435 393 5988 1501 6 0 0
ODI 0 50 16 808 9908 6241 115 0
CDI 0 28 13 270 4937 16277 3380 90
VCDI 0 0 0 1 120 2007 2126 652
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118441 13335 126 98 1 0 0 0
OW 378 4733 960 1608 11 0 0 0
VODI 33 803 535 6674 1160 1 0 0
ODI 0 95 13 1192 8651 7385 220 0
CDI 0 67 41 212 4938 13922 4021 724
VCDI 0 8 0 23 248 987 2212 887
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119958 14270 175 91 0 0 0 0
OW 237 4599 1190 2026 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 195 176 5954 1703 10 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 323 9748 873 0 0
CDI 0 9 1 28 4160 19641 1653 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 1316 5019 1323
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121318 13356 137 135 0 0 0 0
OW 330 4956 1016 1568 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 431 266 5921 1526 26 0 0
ODI 0 22 7 718 8482 1841 110 0
CDI 0 2 0 52 5033 17932 3526 129
VCDI 0 0 0 9 62 671 3513 1622
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121326 13869 230 175 0 0 0 0
OW 322 4441 929 1742 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 430 253 5623 1612 44 0 0
ODI 0 21 14 786 8524 1724 104 0
CDI 0 6 0 68 4887 17766 3407 71
VCDI 0 0 0 9 66 936 3638 1680

Date: 2025-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122532 12612 103 66 0 0 0 0
OW 291 5319 981 1181 27 0 0 0
VODI 1 657 611 5869 1501 3 0 0
ODI 0 38 36 1003 9097 1802 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 5330 16887 3227 3
VCDI 0 0 0 18 84 740 3453 1192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122533 13124 188 124 0 0 0 0
OW 291 4825 912 1419 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 627 593 5475 1609 3 0 0
ODI 0 47 38 1091 8427 1862 22 0
CDI 0 3 0 66 5873 16638 2907 4
VCDI 0 0 0 18 87 929 3774 1191

Date: 2025-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124677 12837 143 61 0 0 0 0
OW 465 4363 1386 1740 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 78 6258 1019 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 212 12955 257 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 16 2683 17825 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 84 1455 5954 31
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124446 11345 147 84 6 0 0 0
OW 648 5023 870 1222 64 0 0 0
VODI 48 844 551 5818 1399 20 0 0
ODI 0 72 40 1086 8269 1873 13 0
CDI 0 2 1 73 6920 15697 2056 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 91 1948 4011 31

Date: 2025-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 126015 11864 119 72 2 0 0 0
OW 551 4759 1148 1376 28 1 0 0
VODI 5 270 200 6272 907 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 529 12285 638 1 0
CDI 0 2 1 18 4199 15478 1150 0
VCDI 0 9 0 2 131 1276 4658 772
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125681 10320 128 94 6 0 0 0
OW 835 5281 770 1171 73 1 0 0
VODI 55 1253 532 5572 1259 62 1 0
ODI 0 43 37 1292 8226 1413 9 0
CDI 0 3 1 132 7870 14450 2330 2
VCDI 0 9 0 8 118 1467 3469 770

Date: 2025-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128054 9885 103 61 3 0 0 0
OW 934 5186 827 884 33 0 0 0
VODI 13 484 599 6349 714 1 0 0
ODI 0 14 2 848 12170 760 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 26 3627 15138 1121 0
VCDI 0 9 1 12 108 1605 4514 657
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 127573 8376 102 154 24 0 0 0
OW 1306 5488 577 906 93 0 0 0
VODI 122 1601 797 5520 1178 14 0 0
ODI 0 104 55 1436 7620 1373 4 0
CDI 0 1 0 146 7608 14750 1878 61
VCDI 0 9 1 18 132 1367 3753 596


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