Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-07-31

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-04

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 270 1446 25 71 0 0 0 0
OW 0 680 262 439 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 19 1357 232 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 4981 437 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1807 17665 217 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1721 3667 1543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 266 1262 20 54 0 0 0 0
OW 4 669 105 173 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 196 180 1288 434 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 377 4133 7409 78 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 2443 12122 2702 696
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 291 1104 847

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 256 336 2 4 0 0 0 0
OW 16 211 19 57 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 13 172 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 1 70 140 0 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 30 395 405 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 125 706 33
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 250 293 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 21 73 2 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 80 10 57 9 2 0 0
ODI 0 90 7 93 35 18 0 0
CDI 0 84 15 159 431 326 30 0
VCDI 0 5 1 19 104 184 681 33

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 540 22 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 124 128 215 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 6 2267 362 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 105 2931 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 571 2067 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 224 394 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 507 39 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 149 89 136 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 28 1911 227 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 540 1568 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2069 2141 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 135 256 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1342 1642 9 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 349 286 420 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 10 1334 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 175 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1342 1444 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 542 251 529 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 48 1243 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 66 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93 2642 29 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 438 344 506 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 28 856 132 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 1382 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 525 179 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93 2229 25 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 793 213 261 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 163 1041 442 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 1311 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 292 192 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 256 2680 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 723 170 180 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 11 382 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 644 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 60 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 256 2199 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1120 120 123 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 61 410 153 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 60 503 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 135 52 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5079 975 14 21 0 0 0 0
OW 24 112 24 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 41 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5029 905 12 13 0 0 0 0
OW 74 122 13 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 13 43 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11059 260 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11059 260 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8693 1138 3 2 0 0 0 0
OW 3 858 92 395 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 219 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 97 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 94 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8691 914 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 843 58 125 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 238 37 439 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 67 115 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 65 89 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12864 123 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12864 123 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4611 742 16 7 0 0 0 0
OW 180 94 37 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 11 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4527 714 23 9 0 0 0 0
OW 264 107 24 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 7 24 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7614 620 17 13 0 0 0 0
OW 1 138 7 81 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 34 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7607 588 16 4 0 0 0 0
OW 8 132 8 88 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 0 36 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14697 793 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 113 31 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 11 54 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14697 757 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 125 26 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 13 46 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 7 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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