Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-07-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115045 12244 158 138 1 0 0 0
OW 555 4711 1039 1960 65 0 0 0
VODI 15 346 405 5361 1764 10 0 0
ODI 0 25 4 606 9101 1527 4 0
CDI 0 31 22 160 7782 25499 279 0
VCDI 0 0 0 188 763 4650 285 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115197 13387 169 121 5 0 0 0
OW 417 4752 1006 1873 101 2 0 0
VODI 0 493 431 5326 1792 21 0 0
ODI 0 28 3 653 8346 1813 11 0
CDI 0 80 33 164 7674 21992 1796 42
VCDI 0 3 11 175 639 5205 982 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117194 14443 244 167 5 0 0 0
OW 158 3582 1154 2246 41 8 0 0
VODI 3 173 156 5198 1589 19 1 0
ODI 0 31 21 253 12479 1720 1 0
CDI 0 6 20 207 3615 24613 1095 1
VCDI 0 0 0 30 192 1381 2694 3
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116777 15037 219 129 1 0 0 0
OW 155 3966 1122 1868 16 0 0 0
VODI 1 310 241 5289 2088 1 0 0
ODI 0 35 15 383 11386 4277 0 0
CDI 0 17 21 220 4799 20436 1427 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 215 3564 721 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116775 15173 265 141 1 0 0 0
OW 156 3788 1063 2007 17 0 0 0
VODI 2 351 254 5133 2105 1 0 0
ODI 0 35 11 377 11061 4347 31 0
CDI 0 18 25 235 5120 20305 1388 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 201 3625 729 0

Date: 2025-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117628 14178 155 78 0 0 0 0
OW 378 4457 1079 1583 4 0 0 0
VODI 50 620 467 6154 1502 17 0 0
ODI 0 81 13 1114 8539 7291 219 0
CDI 0 59 34 210 4733 14361 4639 326
VCDI 0 0 0 2 240 1654 2874 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117643 14383 203 89 0 0 0 0
OW 384 4232 1094 1720 2 0 0 0
VODI 29 636 402 5851 1786 13 0 0
ODI 0 75 15 1256 8124 6725 450 0
CDI 0 69 34 223 4879 14753 4332 321
VCDI 0 0 0 2 227 1832 2950 9

Date: 2025-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119338 14629 146 147 0 0 0 0
OW 250 4070 1418 2418 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 103 6806 880 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 1 431 10437 479 0 0
CDI 0 11 1 37 3612 20575 226 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 2131 4826 1589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119172 12820 149 105 0 0 0 0
OW 415 4908 920 1541 1 0 0 0
VODI 1 911 573 6623 1456 8 0 0
ODI 0 107 10 1331 7820 7490 78 0
CDI 0 96 16 217 5542 15007 2883 696
VCDI 0 5 1 22 155 680 2091 893

Date: 2025-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120835 13533 158 126 4 0 0 0
OW 224 4885 980 1842 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 323 279 5916 1559 28 0 0
ODI 0 23 2 492 8933 1798 42 0
CDI 0 2 0 29 4408 19202 2255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1464 4102 1234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120674 11566 152 143 2 0 0 0
OW 385 5514 682 1403 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 1487 508 5481 2197 167 6 0
ODI 0 121 51 1145 6800 8364 276 0
CDI 0 78 26 222 5827 13515 4531 813
VCDI 0 0 0 11 120 446 1586 421

Date: 2025-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121784 13157 90 163 2 0 0 0
OW 304 5083 809 1497 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 571 481 5518 1828 30 0 0
ODI 0 22 17 818 9086 1399 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 3971 19410 3066 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 66 244 3559 1588
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121491 11022 101 183 0 0 0 0
OW 535 5733 587 1340 59 2 0 0
VODI 62 1805 609 5005 2466 94 1 0
ODI 0 177 76 1228 6227 8217 604 0
CDI 0 96 24 256 6180 12665 4988 1084
VCDI 0 0 0 42 90 105 1085 504


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