Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-07-24

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-28

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 165 1338 26 12 0 0 0 0
OW 64 500 210 311 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 10 921 403 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 5666 694 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1413 21936 603 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 462 1872 245
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 152 943 11 13 0 0 0 0
OW 77 813 126 158 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 102 842 312 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 7 261 3116 3247 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 3838 15658 1358 233
VCDI 0 0 0 0 215 4187 1117 12

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 56 450 2 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 119 4 81 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 6 48 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 22 68 79 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 7 168 362 439 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 142 367 519 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 56 413 1 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 69 1 24 0 3 0 0
VODI 0 29 1 39 4 12 0 0
ODI 0 23 0 18 14 29 0 0
CDI 0 66 26 99 244 274 65 0
VCDI 0 11 12 200 333 495 551 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 492 64 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 67 286 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 226 246 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 3870 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 972 3455 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 108 1 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 435 46 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 67 164 27 9 0 0
VODI 0 8 22 312 313 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 2462 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2118 1668 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 173 1736 1 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1159 1516 82 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 236 95 412 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1369 219 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 534 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1159 1391 58 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 341 106 352 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 13 1345 203 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 543 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 1990 57 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 661 241 439 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 958 247 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 2102 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 336 130 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 1543 73 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 992 133 265 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 118 92 977 389 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 134 1141 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1144 139 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 36 2436 21 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 618 309 302 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 25 584 115 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 772 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 36 2055 45 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 898 213 320 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 97 549 219 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 476 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 219 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4925 892 22 47 2 0 0 0
OW 117 164 29 34 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 36 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4808 860 9 5 0 0 0 0
OW 234 189 34 81 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 10 31 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10821 498 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10821 498 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7622 2050 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 396 158 301 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 28 637 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 153 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 80 42 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 78 50 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7622 1856 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 525 92 112 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 82 630 60 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 12 209 154 41 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 57 76 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12837 130 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 15 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3660 1580 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 200 59 74 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 12 131 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 36 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3660 1446 1 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 318 44 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 27 165 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 20 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7558 565 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 1 113 46 66 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 137 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7553 496 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 6 176 41 76 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 6 130 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14555 905 11 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 75 32 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 46 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 21 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14555 833 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 134 31 42 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 5 47 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 26 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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