Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-07-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109217 12338 106 131 7 0 0 0
OW 766 4126 959 1948 107 1 0 0
VODI 28 429 418 4720 1936 10 0 0
ODI 0 19 5 995 8222 1260 0 0
CDI 0 24 0 82 7505 30361 4663 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 660 1993 1704 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110931 11469 111 72 10 0 0 0
OW 574 4892 966 1835 110 0 0 0
VODI 17 688 454 4567 2363 20 0 0
ODI 0 40 19 1224 6965 718 1 0
CDI 0 18 3 118 6612 32303 3870 0
VCDI 0 0 0 96 565 1706 1406 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112352 13208 262 258 13 0 0 0
OW 211 4234 1251 2714 62 2 0 0
VODI 0 127 108 5109 1856 10 0 0
ODI 0 18 7 362 10868 1234 0 0
CDI 0 11 9 186 5179 28192 1493 0
VCDI 0 0 0 67 351 3835 1154 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114521 11970 233 139 3 0 0 0
OW 576 4522 1206 2020 75 8 0 0
VODI 11 177 332 5561 1682 34 0 0
ODI 0 26 4 433 10117 1210 7 0
CDI 0 25 22 174 7571 24933 771 0
VCDI 0 0 0 154 480 4137 1609 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114541 12273 308 180 3 0 0 0
OW 552 4153 1126 2024 82 9 0 0
VODI 15 239 336 5426 1670 40 1 0
ODI 0 30 5 522 10400 1620 8 0
CDI 0 25 22 192 7345 24215 715 0
VCDI 0 0 0 137 428 4438 1663 0

Date: 2025-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115309 12654 154 125 3 0 0 0
OW 487 4762 1050 1885 85 1 0 0
VODI 0 431 422 5324 1880 8 0 0
ODI 0 25 3 610 8766 1363 9 0
CDI 0 40 27 181 8155 22981 1894 48
VCDI 0 0 0 134 651 4357 910 9
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115380 12870 238 213 1 0 0 0
OW 416 4514 969 1805 99 2 0 0
VODI 0 454 415 5238 1707 10 0 0
ODI 0 33 8 678 8876 2294 12 0
CDI 0 41 26 208 8215 21043 1926 37
VCDI 0 0 0 117 642 5361 875 20

Date: 2025-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115721 15590 297 196 3 0 0 0
OW 189 3305 1284 2469 32 4 0 0
VODI 0 96 93 5240 1360 5 0 0
ODI 0 18 25 257 13336 727 1 0
CDI 0 3 7 197 3304 26152 777 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 175 1125 2505 247
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115574 13589 264 213 2 0 0 0
OW 336 4741 915 1722 87 18 0 0
VODI 0 554 464 5199 1624 57 0 0
ODI 0 40 20 843 8033 3488 23 0
CDI 0 73 31 166 7689 17927 1550 234
VCDI 0 15 12 219 775 6523 1710 13

Date: 2025-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117283 14453 246 174 3 0 0 0
OW 162 3745 1160 1984 23 0 0 0
VODI 2 232 216 5475 1746 1 0 0
ODI 0 28 13 326 11220 3505 0 0
CDI 0 11 23 205 3989 23684 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 159 3964 528 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117185 12311 227 241 1 0 0 0
OW 259 5157 729 1535 104 0 0 0
VODI 1 807 620 5073 1687 61 4 0
ODI 2 64 27 995 7617 5541 33 0
CDI 0 93 23 125 6609 17792 158 0
VCDI 0 37 32 212 1122 7760 499 0

Date: 2025-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118517 13278 157 118 2 0 0 0
OW 424 4083 977 1775 12 0 0 0
VODI 38 435 393 5988 1501 6 0 0
ODI 0 50 16 808 9908 6241 115 0
CDI 0 28 13 270 4937 16277 3380 90
VCDI 0 0 0 1 120 2007 2126 652
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118335 11432 196 371 11 0 0 0
OW 577 5004 651 1516 109 0 0 0
VODI 67 1144 610 5015 1292 100 3 0
ODI 0 120 61 1599 6875 6171 591 0
CDI 0 159 25 308 7598 13417 3747 543
VCDI 0 15 13 151 595 4843 1280 199


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