Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-07-17

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-21

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 31 1109 31 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 510 212 369 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 581 197 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 3382 876 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1326 24697 595 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 448 2502 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 31 971 13 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 615 145 182 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 89 670 131 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 113 1879 1053 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 2893 23352 2167 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1616 930 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 408 1 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 91 6 14 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 5 11 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 22 25 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 127 289 687 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 292 397 515 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 360 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 82 0 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 0 10 6 6 0 0
ODI 0 32 0 8 15 21 0 0
CDI 0 30 17 42 134 409 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 124 463 650 357 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 206 42 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 34 297 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 133 179 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 3344 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 558 4734 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 175 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 191 30 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 43 100 1 2 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 273 190 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 1549 99 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 2351 4717 278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 6 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 701 1430 59 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 109 99 421 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 739 723 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 1248 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 701 1294 19 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 245 139 484 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 674 1086 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 864 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 49 42 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 497 54 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 833 228 562 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 780 475 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 2346 63 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 153 1197 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 454 31 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 544 81 175 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 321 140 675 172 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 33 472 1470 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 1332 1260 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1578 42 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 438 207 438 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 787 339 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 849 105 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 53 423 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1170 26 26 2 0 0 0
OW 0 734 146 240 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 105 60 735 385 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 20 232 469 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 379 528 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2805 2352 2 38 7 0 0 0
OW 0 476 117 207 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 16 166 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 54 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2805 2114 0 34 10 0 0 0
OW 0 668 105 223 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 30 145 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 35 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10887 399 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10874 353 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 36 59 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7208 1896 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 12 738 158 235 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 742 83 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 274 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 98 143 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 47 4 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7197 1677 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 21 835 97 128 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 121 72 571 106 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 304 310 95 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 39 95 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12758 143 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 83 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12571 126 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 250 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3074 1657 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 360 99 115 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 27 270 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 81 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 53 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3075 1474 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 477 55 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 68 300 26 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 67 67 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 33 50 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7384 544 3 18 0 0 0 0
OW 18 126 44 98 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 121 97 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 64 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7280 503 3 8 0 0 0 0
OW 122 161 45 100 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 130 122 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14466 832 1 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 158 39 74 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 63 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 42 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14466 774 0 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 213 30 75 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 10 65 47 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 19 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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