Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-07-10

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 128 1076 6 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 390 82 154 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 178 135 330 49 1 0 0
ODI 0 45 22 384 457 99 0 0
CDI 0 6 21 154 3334 19934 2199 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 6539 1073 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 128 1013 8 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 394 61 144 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 147 345 60 2 0 0
ODI 0 59 33 405 458 166 0 0
CDI 0 2 17 132 3313 19750 2245 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 6655 1027 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17 141 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 4 179 4 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 5 29 0 16 0 0
ODI 0 25 5 6 12 14 0 0
CDI 0 20 7 25 107 335 117 0
VCDI 0 1 1 15 612 637 728 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17 119 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 4 196 4 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 5 29 1 16 0 0
ODI 0 24 5 6 10 15 0 0
CDI 0 22 7 26 117 332 123 0
VCDI 0 2 1 14 603 639 722 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 63 2 0 0 1 0 0
OW 0 45 19 42 2 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 181 275 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 473 595 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2599 5302 345 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 51 20 36 2 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 186 261 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 494 684 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2592 5192 346 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 6 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 561 879 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 267 76 92 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 32 626 387 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 2003 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 469 109 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 561 799 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 342 66 77 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 42 619 414 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 138 2079 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 366 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 97 4 44 18 0 0 0
OW 0 184 35 123 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 53 463 161 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 362 993 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 2326 1838 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 284 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 86 1 11 7 0 0 0
OW 0 194 47 108 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 40 506 171 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 7 367 1105 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 2224 1491 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 604 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 929 45 22 1 0 0 0
OW 0 218 124 208 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 76 514 116 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 15 213 551 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 97 839 491 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 666 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 842 29 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 297 128 190 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 85 549 119 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 219 549 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 840 452 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 662 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2453 2528 12 3 5 0 0 0
OW 22 317 94 164 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 27 383 106 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 58 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2438 2448 4 2 1 0 0 0
OW 37 398 88 155 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 41 398 114 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 49 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10816 396 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 26 44 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 37 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10813 388 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 29 53 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 38 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6733 1786 29 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 543 93 93 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 240 130 606 112 20 2 0
ODI 0 5 3 384 576 74 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 89 81 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6733 1636 16 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 671 98 79 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 267 141 651 110 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 360 587 92 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 83 65 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11639 773 14 7 0 0 0 0
OW 105 221 41 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 126 12 25 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11625 755 5 7 0 0 0 0
OW 118 256 53 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 109 9 22 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2125 1985 9 14 0 0 0 0
OW 10 393 28 70 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 70 237 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 218 53 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 316 87 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2129 1945 8 12 0 0 0 0
OW 6 429 28 55 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 72 266 7 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 226 63 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 304 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4705 2312 33 71 4 0 0 0
OW 36 618 56 197 33 0 0 0
VODI 1 75 1 102 134 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 47 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 30 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4710 2271 30 46 3 0 0 0
OW 32 668 57 230 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 3 93 135 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 55 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 28 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13069 1750 8 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 257 88 138 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 156 121 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 118 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13069 1761 8 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 246 89 136 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 159 125 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 113 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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