Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-07-10

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 128 1110 4 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 581 231 305 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 31 631 113 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 1798 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2006 24423 917 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 2105 2355 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 128 1013 8 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 394 61 144 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 227 147 345 60 2 0 0
ODI 0 59 33 405 458 166 0 0
CDI 0 2 17 132 3313 19750 2245 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 6655 1027 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 21 226 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 173 17 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 3 27 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 17 28 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 136 471 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 567 524 734 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 17 119 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 4 196 4 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 5 29 1 16 0 0
ODI 0 24 5 6 10 15 0 0
CDI 0 22 7 26 117 332 123 0
VCDI 0 2 1 14 603 639 722 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 21 106 10 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 119 131 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 1479 237 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1729 5645 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 263 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 51 20 36 2 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 186 261 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 494 684 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2592 5192 346 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 6 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 561 1003 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 163 92 260 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 12 543 377 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 2473 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 561 799 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 342 66 77 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 42 619 414 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 138 2079 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 366 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 148 3 19 2 0 0 0
OW 0 177 85 233 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 7 734 182 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 75 2454 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 875 2177 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 86 1 11 7 0 0 0
OW 0 194 47 108 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 40 506 171 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 7 367 1105 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 2224 1491 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 604 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 971 37 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 238 211 382 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 592 223 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 892 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 438 963 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 237 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 842 29 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 297 128 190 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 85 549 119 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 18 219 549 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 83 840 452 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 662 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2462 2579 10 1 0 0 0 0
OW 13 323 111 242 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 329 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 57 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2438 2448 4 2 1 0 0 0
OW 37 398 88 155 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 41 398 114 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 49 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10811 398 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 32 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10813 388 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 29 53 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 38 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6733 1902 24 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 655 185 276 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 46 758 114 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 515 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 151 83 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 88 41 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6733 1636 16 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 671 98 79 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 267 141 651 110 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 360 587 92 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 83 65 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11690 786 8 9 0 0 0 0
OW 55 334 56 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 23 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11625 755 5 7 0 0 0 0
OW 118 256 53 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 109 9 22 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2135 2073 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 410 65 101 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 40 416 24 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 265 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2129 1945 8 12 0 0 0 0
OW 6 429 28 55 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 72 266 7 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 226 63 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 304 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4717 2487 66 70 3 0 0 0
OW 25 508 24 225 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 85 107 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 82 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 44 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4710 2271 30 46 3 0 0 0
OW 32 668 57 230 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 3 93 135 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 55 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 28 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13069 1841 15 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 81 119 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 168 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 151 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 20 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13069 1761 8 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 246 89 136 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 159 125 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 113 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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