Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-07-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104683 6819 1928 46 12 1 0 0
OW 1978 2598 2169 1601 56 13 0 0
VODI 143 213 3088 1597 471 50 1 1
ODI 8 50 4397 1478 1818 470 5 12
CDI 2 0 10534 2956 3447 3844 190 17
VCDI 0 0 6286 4848 5002 13659 6098 2154
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98198 16201 147 160 40 6 0 0
OW 317 5001 710 1533 201 58 0 0
VODI 21 530 392 3123 1444 188 0 0
ODI 0 76 83 1471 6022 719 14 0
CDI 0 6 21 329 7874 12458 655 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 3117 17898 14441 1287
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100923 17521 207 241 20 0 0 0
OW 233 3075 931 2027 93 6 0 0
VODI 15 154 194 3984 1455 34 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 492 8183 514 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 60 7327 24129 356 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 716 10431 11266 148
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102220 16554 135 213 16 0 0 0
OW 224 3360 762 1710 182 0 0 0
VODI 10 500 310 3799 1693 25 0 0
ODI 0 17 27 763 7058 893 14 0
CDI 0 0 3 200 11094 22721 1102 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 3719 9271 6146 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102188 16748 162 221 14 0 0 0
OW 257 3186 731 1700 162 0 0 0
VODI 9 471 309 3756 1698 32 0 0
ODI 0 25 33 800 7027 1237 12 0
CDI 0 1 2 205 11323 22395 1199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 3538 9246 6051 0

Date: 2025-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104490 14242 89 140 14 1 0 0
OW 209 4185 672 1303 111 12 0 0
VODI 9 847 488 3936 1710 103 0 0
ODI 0 59 27 1281 5556 1723 249 0
CDI 0 16 15 289 6717 28108 2464 1
VCDI 0 0 0 19 831 11609 3214 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104484 14458 115 153 18 1 0 0
OW 218 3990 626 1323 115 10 0 0
VODI 6 816 506 3906 1765 126 0 0
ODI 0 69 31 1266 5198 2128 288 0
CDI 0 16 13 297 6899 27510 2446 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 944 11781 3193 5

Date: 2025-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104246 16242 184 196 6 0 0 0
OW 146 3977 1194 2400 84 1 0 0
VODI 2 93 170 4532 1628 10 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 472 10513 434 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 36 5659 34124 1135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 671 3124 3451 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104129 14710 113 145 14 0 0 0
OW 258 4348 752 1313 171 4 0 0
VODI 7 1126 592 3954 1694 95 0 0
ODI 0 104 68 1810 5818 1283 41 0
CDI 0 26 24 397 10029 27595 2737 5
VCDI 0 2 1 19 835 8716 1808 0

Date: 2025-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107680 13232 101 185 6 0 0 0
OW 635 3783 1064 2143 116 0 0 0
VODI 13 295 313 4641 1716 10 0 0
ODI 0 7 7 774 10127 349 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 46 7395 32398 1860 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 781 2783 2268 12
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107290 11462 82 219 27 0 0 0
OW 976 4378 569 1327 210 0 0 0
VODI 62 1325 719 3695 1752 44 0 0
ODI 0 127 85 2125 6465 489 6 0
CDI 0 26 28 408 10852 27327 1837 1
VCDI 0 1 3 15 835 7680 2285 11

Date: 2025-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109217 12338 106 131 7 0 0 0
OW 766 4126 959 1948 107 1 0 0
VODI 28 429 418 4720 1936 10 0 0
ODI 0 19 5 995 8222 1260 0 0
CDI 0 24 0 82 7505 30361 4663 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 660 1993 1704 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108642 10204 76 224 18 0 0 0
OW 1279 4691 592 1520 217 5 0 0
VODI 90 1803 655 3439 1950 80 0 0
ODI 0 179 142 2226 5784 738 14 0
CDI 0 47 23 443 9558 26336 3686 0
VCDI 0 12 0 27 910 6466 2667 0


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