Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-07-03

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-07-07

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 68 1123 7 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 300 117 223 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 13 304 124 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 117 633 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 2081 13591 233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 5577 11545 730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 68 979 6 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 259 21 54 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 44 208 44 1 0 0
ODI 0 64 27 179 261 3 4 0
CDI 0 10 40 212 1864 6261 430 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 698 12970 11344 730

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8 43 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 13 79 13 37 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 3 157 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 17 51 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 120 345 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 464 954 758 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 16 46 0 0 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 39 11 67 3 10 1 0
ODI 0 20 1 124 58 25 3 0
CDI 0 8 4 22 62 232 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 533 1038 757 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 90 42 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 70 44 143 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 16 292 63 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 1022 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2208 3963 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1728 183 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 61 13 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 41 55 6 3 0 0
VODI 0 40 40 254 58 9 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 134 359 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 1725 1228 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1145 4443 197 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 473 868 15 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 180 68 174 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 330 235 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 2789 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 318 145 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 470 634 13 26 0 0 0 0
OW 3 373 42 122 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 36 315 175 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 1568 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1557 144 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 60 105 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 216 209 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 1906 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1274 3176 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 37 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 127 20 23 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 40 237 260 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 1144 172 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 1977 3071 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 673 42 64 14 0 0 0
OW 0 172 159 300 30 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 384 194 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 598 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 351 1404 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 372 461 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 548 51 66 44 22 0 0
OW 0 268 96 138 46 34 0 0
VODI 0 28 45 308 162 59 0 0
ODI 0 1 9 214 421 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 507 1189 83 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 387 378 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1465 3101 28 13 0 0 0 0
OW 39 280 103 262 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 6 372 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 384 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1390 2846 16 5 0 0 0 0
OW 114 476 71 87 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 44 333 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 237 345 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 163 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10000 1125 7 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 81 34 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 34 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9998 1061 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 2 138 37 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 6 43 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6846 2152 13 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 262 149 151 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 11 584 160 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 726 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 192 145 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 78 176 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6846 2060 12 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 319 92 155 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 66 342 77 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 271 726 18 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 274 209 176 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10871 1554 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 149 89 67 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 21 197 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10870 1401 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 274 34 23 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 79 188 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1215 2596 21 11 0 0 0 0
OW 26 446 111 131 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 246 85 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 343 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 117 406 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1182 2337 27 24 1 0 0 0
OW 56 473 24 45 21 0 0 0
VODI 3 202 55 77 50 0 1 0
ODI 0 33 27 218 143 0 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 330 406 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4223 2243 51 21 2 0 0 0
OW 157 444 65 372 21 0 0 0
VODI 5 2 4 377 117 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 238 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 90 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3901 1553 3 7 3 0 0 0
OW 466 1114 103 445 67 0 0 0
VODI 18 22 12 253 122 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 47 185 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 41 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 31 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13349 1474 10 0 0 0 0 0
OW 30 175 47 110 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 182 120 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 117 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 88 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13301 1447 12 0 0 0 0 0
OW 78 195 40 53 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 12 198 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 181 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0


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