Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-06-26

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-30

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 712 2 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 263 128 178 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 298 56 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 338 8 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 11 504 4344 208 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 358 8917 13506 6965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 586 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 274 29 9 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 99 68 146 36 8 0 0
ODI 0 17 30 141 177 39 0 7
CDI 0 0 6 274 583 2415 780 14
VCDI 0 0 0 5 460 10807 12934 6955

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 1 9 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 1 24 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 4 182 47 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 267 260 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 656 966 598 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 2 10 6 2 0 0
ODI 0 20 0 10 70 28 0 0
CDI 0 24 0 17 279 195 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 787 1048 598 1

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 31 10 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 7 141 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 140 73 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 269 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 576 4495 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4015 128 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 29 9 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 2 73 10 1 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 100 45 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 63 201 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 468 2507 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 194 5919 129 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 66 716 16 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 278 117 242 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 12 195 186 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 1044 300 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 579 1842 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 66 529 28 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 334 31 82 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 66 184 224 0 0 0
ODI 0 31 20 178 735 210 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 719 1641 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 151 291 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 35 96 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 202 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1070 265 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 545 4638 170 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 25 7 6 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 23 137 20 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 155 826 418 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 931 4324 170 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 164 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 601 30 45 1 0 0 0
OW 0 214 165 280 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 333 131 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 580 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 306 1205 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 443 842 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 391 17 34 3 0 0 0
OW 0 380 128 192 16 1 0 0
VODI 0 44 44 262 240 92 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 160 377 206 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 390 1120 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 295 627 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 630 3027 26 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 832 195 170 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 2 238 110 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 32 380 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 220 330 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 34 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 630 2698 22 29 9 0 0 0
OW 0 1012 112 59 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 155 84 245 77 3 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 122 254 79 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 373 279 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9094 1848 5 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 77 56 85 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 101 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 25 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9094 1780 1 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 60 97 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 91 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6806 2218 20 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 240 145 136 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 398 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 591 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 301 473 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 83 186 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6806 2094 19 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 328 85 56 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 62 347 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 153 545 50 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 330 435 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 73 29 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10953 1552 10 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 98 68 99 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 81 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10953 1491 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 144 65 71 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 14 106 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 71 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 271 2916 8 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 603 116 106 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 5 26 241 36 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 70 216 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 229 834 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 88 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 271 2507 8 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 785 51 46 5 6 0 0
VODI 0 192 43 130 18 7 0 0
ODI 0 40 44 118 55 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 123 406 419 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 496 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1881 1896 3 7 10 0 0 0
OW 7 875 86 838 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 10 1659 482 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 52 205 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 108 145 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 111 60 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1833 1724 6 3 1 0 0 0
OW 55 707 17 104 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 339 65 1210 373 17 3 0
ODI 0 32 10 1045 287 80 16 0
CDI 0 5 2 198 91 129 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 27 42 15 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13118 1433 8 0 0 0 0 0
OW 188 233 48 42 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 1 14 137 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 228 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 144 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12941 1323 8 0 0 0 0 0
OW 343 269 9 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 24 75 53 146 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 186 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 106 139 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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