Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-06-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87751 14702 131 147 22 0 0 0
OW 286 5211 851 859 100 2 0 0
VODI 29 1077 816 4111 1049 82 9 0
ODI 2 20 58 1402 4049 711 48 1
CDI 0 1 4 281 4332 8189 2233 43
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1804 14416 23538 16373
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88468 14425 99 119 28 0 0 0
OW 527 5221 728 1043 77 6 0 0
VODI 39 1432 775 3679 1051 100 15 0
ODI 4 27 71 1532 4043 879 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 438 4763 8841 1701 321
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2592 15581 15351 20736
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89854 16308 148 180 22 0 0 0
OW 198 4452 1207 1221 58 8 1 0
VODI 10 195 261 4495 1341 88 11 1
ODI 3 1 1 727 6026 720 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 171 3758 14191 1651 11
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4478 11825 21232 9846
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91231 15926 135 171 18 0 0 0
OW 180 4794 952 1038 81 13 0 0
VODI 5 722 492 3767 1354 187 3 0
ODI 3 26 17 1825 4160 1210 55 0
CDI 0 40 2 459 3727 15182 2165 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1903 18501 16080 8298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91240 16297 148 196 22 0 0 0
OW 172 4415 902 975 84 18 0 0
VODI 4 726 518 3811 1302 186 2 0
ODI 3 30 28 1712 4153 1328 62 0
CDI 0 40 2 565 3744 14950 2704 62
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1938 18611 15535 8257

Date: 2025-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92877 15559 129 179 20 0 0 0
OW 306 5038 773 868 126 25 0 0
VODI 36 916 518 3526 1317 219 1 0
ODI 9 43 56 2370 3296 1194 24 5
CDI 1 36 5 606 4495 13993 1426 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1379 19935 17395 6022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92862 15785 154 212 33 0 0 0
OW 313 4760 741 838 112 25 0 0
VODI 43 956 524 3477 1219 239 1 0
ODI 9 55 57 2220 3655 1354 38 6
CDI 2 36 5 802 4086 13824 1677 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1528 19924 17130 6010

Date: 2025-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94178 17545 150 248 18 0 0 0
OW 249 4004 1176 2573 133 4 0 0
VODI 15 106 77 4128 1572 57 1 0
ODI 0 20 4 349 5340 890 0 1
CDI 0 2 0 21 3910 19049 420 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1128 14849 15502 7009
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93914 15668 130 242 22 0 0 0
OW 476 4650 601 879 160 24 0 0
VODI 45 1149 532 3252 1370 291 6 0
ODI 7 163 128 2216 3923 1355 37 9
CDI 0 47 16 724 4864 13859 1431 18
VCDI 0 0 0 6 1762 19320 14449 6998

Date: 2025-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95270 17133 178 187 12 0 0 0
OW 330 4568 1200 1968 156 4 0 0
VODI 20 289 188 3578 1499 83 1 0
ODI 0 24 4 669 5958 556 15 0
CDI 0 2 0 76 6499 16198 1137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 883 16818 15185 4055
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95058 15101 125 113 12 0 0 0
OW 531 4607 599 818 243 28 0 0
VODI 30 1688 644 2950 1298 311 14 0
ODI 1 549 175 1905 4594 1330 13 0
CDI 0 71 27 664 7262 11310 1910 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 1598 20680 14401 4055

Date: 2025-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104683 6819 1928 46 12 1 0 0
OW 1978 2598 2169 1601 56 13 0 0
VODI 143 213 3088 1597 471 50 1 1
ODI 8 50 4397 1478 1818 470 5 12
CDI 2 0 10534 2956 3447 3844 190 17
VCDI 0 0 6286 4848 5002 13659 6098 2154
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103321 6085 1552 42 5 0 0 0
OW 2782 2006 1753 482 17 1 0 0
VODI 554 1032 3201 1987 316 22 1 2
ODI 141 523 4823 1714 1342 263 0 7
CDI 16 34 10202 1855 3443 4393 456 38
VCDI 0 0 6871 6446 5683 13358 5837 2137


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