Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-06-19

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-23

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 288 18 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 286 63 73 5 2 0 0
VODI 0 93 35 202 39 9 0 0
ODI 0 1 13 159 234 18 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 430 669 1135 740
VCDI 0 0 0 16 73 3495 13123 15552
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 265 12 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 314 69 70 1 2 0 0
VODI 0 88 34 210 40 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 14 156 238 19 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 430 619 970 728
VCDI 0 0 0 17 72 3545 13289 15564

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 23 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 39 58 380 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 793 854 826 123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 16 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 59 377 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 797 860 827 123

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 113 1420 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7050 1170 38
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 19 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 1439 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7039 1156 38

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 449 13 36 19 0 0 0
OW 0 98 25 31 34 1 0 0
VODI 0 81 34 50 82 5 0 0
ODI 0 31 22 219 107 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 95 552 1917 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1707 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 407 4 24 7 0 0 0
OW 0 113 20 35 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 49 60 101 10 0 0
ODI 0 31 23 239 120 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 73 527 1772 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1824 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 0 1 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 57 23 66 25 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 57 147 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1290 1794 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 683 2592 333 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 18 55 18 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 6 68 162 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1303 2072 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 663 2306 296 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 496 32 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 321 141 140 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 48 397 124 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 317 90 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 648 1039 238 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 131 915 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 382 20 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 431 131 116 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 70 427 125 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 382 105 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 568 981 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 29 177 940 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 393 1960 17 23 1 0 0 0
OW 0 736 110 148 2 1 0 0
VODI 0 264 146 527 152 6 4 0
ODI 0 5 20 291 449 100 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 181 458 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 112 83 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 393 1927 13 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 758 113 138 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 277 148 549 160 6 4 0
ODI 0 3 19 295 442 102 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 180 447 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 121 81 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8840 1677 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 361 50 38 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 21 204 90 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8838 1676 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 3 371 54 34 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 16 211 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6315 2151 54 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 176 83 138 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 46 346 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 181 470 7 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 553 549 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 65 121 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6315 2146 57 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 174 80 143 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 39 343 68 0 2 0
ODI 0 1 14 176 444 15 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 573 518 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 88 127 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9901 2297 15 19 0 0 0 0
OW 1 223 40 36 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 37 309 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9901 2285 12 19 0 0 0 0
OW 1 235 38 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 42 322 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1775 18 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 508 113 227 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 208 88 309 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 20 144 160 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 13 88 339 510 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 543 478 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1651 26 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 587 78 221 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 264 123 291 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 22 185 153 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 70 342 452 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 586 506 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1000 1364 7 41 0 0 0 0
OW 127 918 58 110 7 6 3 0
VODI 7 216 73 460 182 32 11 0
ODI 0 5 11 333 1451 256 19 0
CDI 0 1 4 181 744 668 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 109 79 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 997 1353 5 27 0 0 0 0
OW 131 919 59 111 7 6 0 0
VODI 6 226 76 464 217 36 11 0
ODI 0 3 9 332 1425 261 21 0
CDI 0 3 4 191 739 657 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 111 83 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11695 1726 17 5 0 0 0 0
OW 347 756 40 64 7 0 0 0
VODI 15 217 80 202 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 35 120 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 72 136 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 92 33 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11689 1696 7 4 3 0 0 0
OW 349 801 41 43 8 0 0 0
VODI 19 202 87 214 67 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 45 132 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 168 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 58 31 0


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