Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-06-12

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 361 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 231 136 63 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 447 56 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 620 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 160 1116 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 193 1190 11603 20602
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 258 4 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 320 95 42 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 43 367 100 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 412 78 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 324 862 1664 186
VCDI 0 0 0 0 193 1391 9985 20416

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 71 415 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 401 480 1623 75
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 76 327 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 402 571 1463 75

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 234 1153 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2440 4004 2056 70
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 274 437 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2610 4884 1630 70

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 239 5 4 1 0 0 0
OW 0 163 32 15 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 33 118 57 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 81 166 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 219 2058 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 287 1771 174 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 199 6 3 9 0 0 0
OW 0 63 3 14 32 7 0 0
VODI 0 77 8 18 38 84 0 0
ODI 0 57 18 28 20 109 12 0
CDI 0 35 39 160 303 901 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 337 2785 123 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 72 22 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 89 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 160 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 165 1081 136 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 964 3893 549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 14 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 10 66 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 15 84 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 183 854 1219 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1184 2810 548

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 396 15 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 274 148 110 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 16 524 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 502 24 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 469 1361 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 111 1012 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 284 19 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 332 93 129 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 67 389 189 19 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 144 288 166 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 365 970 759 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 283 341 309 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 1909 21 8 2 0 0 0
OW 0 492 227 111 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 7 843 123 0 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 983 94 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 93 685 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 576 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1 1740 37 16 2 0 0 0
OW 0 604 126 130 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 65 90 579 189 0 3 0
ODI 0 0 2 290 830 193 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 177 601 530 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8532 1997 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 226 80 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 220 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 166 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8532 1892 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 311 48 60 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 33 187 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 139 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6113 2203 21 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 221 119 104 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 512 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 662 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 214 656 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 508 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6113 2045 24 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 317 48 111 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 62 70 346 92 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 149 435 164 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 435 562 567 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8821 3307 18 37 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 65 65 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 273 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 134 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8821 3199 21 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 238 60 113 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 6 190 93 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 125 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 1500 12 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 412 143 96 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 31 713 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 80 434 19 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 159 586 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 145 1237 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 1376 17 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 403 67 107 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 115 67 413 143 8 0 0
ODI 0 34 24 233 202 71 2 0
CDI 0 2 11 130 374 632 786 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 39 506 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 319 974 10 21 0 0 0 0
OW 20 1253 215 146 7 0 0 0
VODI 1 30 16 739 211 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 55 937 132 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 184 2807 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 400 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 287 723 10 23 0 0 0 0
OW 52 956 78 122 23 0 0 0
VODI 1 564 104 463 349 10 4 0
ODI 0 16 49 308 634 734 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 328 2179 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 41 265 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10991 2070 10 3 0 0 0 0
OW 72 700 218 187 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 17 632 124 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 212 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 224 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 154 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10851 1852 8 2 0 0 0 0
OW 200 653 114 217 6 0 0 0
VODI 12 271 121 499 152 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 128 141 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 86 173 87 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 75 0


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