Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-06-05

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-09

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 84 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 186 83 59 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 17 451 100 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 840 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 294 2843 374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 313 7991 23140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 147 36 32 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 55 296 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 11 214 539 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 654 2685 2422 226
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 470 5943 22914

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 91 361 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 655 1620 237
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 6 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 73 297 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 716 1457 237

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 31 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 298 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1096 7710 680
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 51 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 186 576 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1185 7186 680

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 90 10 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 27 19 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 11 77 26 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 46 63 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 193 200 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 246 3013 1502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 41 4 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 5 5 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 16 19 15 7 0 0
ODI 0 18 11 35 32 18 0 0
CDI 0 14 14 86 152 131 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 91 308 2992 1502

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 15 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 1 81 18 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 205 20 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 162 468 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 232 3752 2137
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 15 71 40 3 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 16 134 15 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 189 343 374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 362 3432 2137

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 261 9 10 2 0 0 0
OW 0 437 165 88 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 12 530 91 2 2 0
ODI 0 1 1 68 442 32 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 249 1370 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 108 1205 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 57 4 18 7 0 0 0
OW 0 494 47 53 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 151 123 348 96 38 13 0
ODI 0 12 12 201 213 42 121 0
CDI 0 1 1 77 433 1253 618 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 179 649 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1156 4 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 643 247 92 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 22 730 108 1 1 0
ODI 0 2 0 89 1134 106 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 144 1312 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 103 312 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 809 3 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 820 116 79 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 193 143 475 74 6 0 0
ODI 0 2 11 358 897 244 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 416 1087 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 185 285 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8071 2075 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 357 89 60 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 13 282 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 273 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8071 1795 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 550 46 60 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 58 255 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 232 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6207 2210 11 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 163 140 60 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 549 69 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 564 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 319 757 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 55 432 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6207 2153 29 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 220 116 165 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 365 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 271 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 525 672 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 130 375 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8629 3110 15 12 5 0 0 0
OW 0 304 148 241 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 251 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 104 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 59 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8629 2867 3 6 8 0 0 0
OW 0 542 151 307 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 14 197 111 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 33 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12 1095 11 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 278 113 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 31 432 87 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 773 32 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 300 1108 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 50 1062 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12 1027 21 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 253 71 130 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 34 184 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 29 155 471 84 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 472 989 845 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 117 462 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 404 34 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 500 142 186 28 2 0 0
VODI 0 13 28 1043 276 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 192 1544 126 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 697 2766 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 474 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 207 22 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 553 98 247 58 7 0 0
VODI 0 153 77 605 334 34 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 426 668 168 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 170 1484 2633 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 89 304 1

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10058 2688 44 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 242 155 205 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 750 276 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 686 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 253 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 149 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10058 2444 34 30 3 0 0 0
OW 0 462 131 267 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 37 630 363 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 97 561 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 245 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0


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