Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-29

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 8 11 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 17 180 40 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 176 359 107 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 674 2880 1300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 33 912 9977 20138
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 9 14 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 17 181 39 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 170 315 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 651 2434 1050 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 100 1365 10230 20138

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 7 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 140 298 81 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 482 696 1037 343
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 8 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 138 312 83 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 483 683 1038 342

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 943 1661 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 1304 4534 1451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 673 1878 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 1576 4317 1447

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 8 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 29 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 20 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 48 54 81 3
VCDI 0 0 0 8 105 195 1849 3149
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 8 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 25 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 46 58 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 102 190 1838 3152

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0
OW 0 0 0 7 3 0 22 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 5 0 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 22 7 26 5
CDI 0 0 0 11 223 113 173 48
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 1362 3099 1919
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 21 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 6 2 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 36 8 36 7
CDI 0 0 0 8 234 188 186 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 1284 3085 1932

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 63 9 21 2 2 0 0
OW 0 324 31 24 11 6 2 0
VODI 0 187 58 125 38 19 20 0
ODI 0 119 31 123 124 25 119 0
CDI 0 44 42 240 487 721 704 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 486 1046 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 68 13 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 303 21 7 2 4 0 0
VODI 0 219 49 113 33 28 12 0
ODI 0 128 51 127 142 28 107 0
CDI 0 19 37 269 489 809 749 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 390 1023 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 504 8 7 1 0 0 0
OW 0 464 123 100 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 150 95 436 107 13 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 236 723 203 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 505 1559 896 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 42 98 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 465 5 4 1 0 0 0
OW 0 506 114 88 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 113 454 144 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 232 742 315 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 452 1415 840 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 59 144 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6864 2006 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 642 108 75 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 147 113 495 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 151 359 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 75 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6864 1922 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 730 111 63 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 111 548 209 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 363 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 33 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5616 2045 18 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 295 96 123 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 64 414 139 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 158 752 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 651 795 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 128 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5616 2003 15 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 330 86 119 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 77 411 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 769 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 640 806 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 15 134 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8416 2979 41 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 326 194 407 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 28 299 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 96 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8416 2906 24 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 387 203 384 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 36 331 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 82 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 557 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 513 29 13 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 151 76 81 23 1 0 0
ODI 0 9 35 136 209 17 0 0
CDI 0 1 6 215 806 791 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 931 1072 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 547 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 523 25 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 78 65 20 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 41 150 245 16 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 209 766 706 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 1018 1081 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 221 77 70 2 0 0 0
OW 0 266 52 229 51 7 0 0
VODI 0 81 63 361 295 26 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 203 431 73 1 0
CDI 0 2 3 165 988 1118 503 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 260 970 1949 46
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 193 65 36 0 1 0 0
OW 0 304 58 210 37 7 0 0
VODI 0 71 70 456 320 17 0 0
ODI 0 20 3 183 482 105 1 0
CDI 0 3 3 141 1008 1019 548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 180 1045 1904 46

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9551 2935 46 46 0 1 0 0
OW 16 345 83 395 11 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 13 424 291 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 506 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 231 305 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 58 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9556 2846 32 17 0 0 0 0
OW 11 435 88 385 11 2 0 0
VODI 0 12 22 463 290 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 129 500 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 238 313 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 48 0


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