Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-29

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 16 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 12 304 18 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 688 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 402 3219 590 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 630 10690 20138
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 9 14 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 17 181 39 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 170 315 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 651 2434 1050 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 100 1365 10230 20138

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 7 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 172 503 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 449 493 1087 343
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 8 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 138 312 83 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 483 683 1038 342

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 1507 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 750 6036 1462
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 673 1878 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 1576 4317 1447

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 2 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 6 29 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 59 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 40 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 62 71 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 180 1914 3152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 8 30 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 4 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 25 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 46 58 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 102 190 1838 3152

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 13 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 12 0 15 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 144 14 21 4
CDI 0 0 0 6 122 286 50 32
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 1182 3260 1936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 21 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 6 2 32 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 36 8 36 7
CDI 0 0 0 8 234 188 186 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 1284 3085 1932

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 122 3 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 581 116 40 6 1 0 0
VODI 0 31 52 376 45 4 1 0
ODI 0 3 0 104 453 33 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 204 1081 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 140 1662 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 68 13 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 303 21 7 2 4 0 0
VODI 0 219 49 113 33 28 12 0
ODI 0 128 51 127 142 28 107 0
CDI 0 19 37 269 489 809 749 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 390 1023 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 597 9 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 518 195 95 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 30 631 104 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 1056 66 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 185 1642 107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 887 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 465 5 4 1 0 0 0
OW 0 506 114 88 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 113 454 144 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 232 742 315 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 452 1415 840 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 59 144 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6864 2228 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 567 205 78 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 17 612 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 475 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 98 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6864 1922 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 730 111 63 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 111 548 209 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 363 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 33 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5616 2165 11 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 201 166 128 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 561 129 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 995 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 430 823 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 354 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5616 2003 15 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 330 86 119 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 77 411 130 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 171 769 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 640 806 251 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 15 134 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8416 3118 35 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 213 223 311 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 415 116 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 104 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8416 2906 24 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 387 203 384 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 36 331 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 82 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 714 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 507 126 35 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 17 260 30 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 459 35 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 579 1414 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 290 1101 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 547 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 523 25 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 78 65 20 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 41 150 245 16 2 0
CDI 0 0 2 209 766 706 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 1018 1081 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 241 66 45 1 0 0 0
OW 0 313 110 158 25 2 0 0
VODI 0 30 20 615 259 13 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 164 825 58 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 838 1550 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 571 2319 46
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 193 65 36 0 1 0 0
OW 0 304 58 210 37 7 0 0
VODI 0 71 70 456 320 17 0 0
ODI 0 20 3 183 482 105 1 0
CDI 0 3 3 141 1008 1019 548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 180 1045 1904 46

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9567 3102 27 19 0 1 0 0
OW 0 189 114 237 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 658 110 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 770 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 156 418 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 128 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9556 2846 32 17 0 0 0 0
OW 11 435 88 385 11 2 0 0
VODI 0 12 22 463 290 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 129 500 139 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 238 313 160 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 48 0


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