Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-05-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72864 15077 215 248 21 4 0 1
OW 49 3294 906 1659 154 23 2 10
VODI 0 407 409 4095 1444 115 27 53
ODI 0 29 32 1044 4486 701 125 68
CDI 0 0 1 438 3542 9680 3000 417
VCDI 0 0 0 48 460 5914 28826 34855
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74955 13546 158 162 23 3 0 0
OW 70 3394 799 1571 170 29 14 1
VODI 0 653 471 3694 1620 177 51 51
ODI 0 44 76 1104 4639 872 205 87
CDI 0 7 10 458 3544 9797 3215 190
VCDI 0 0 0 50 571 7970 31670 28622
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75711 14957 159 171 19 6 0 0
OW 0 2967 1028 1488 171 25 1 0
VODI 0 152 298 4048 1431 91 17 2
ODI 0 18 5 823 5284 509 65 4
CDI 0 17 3 201 3507 11081 1959 87
VCDI 0 5 0 18 553 7699 34066 26097
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76343 14756 177 164 13 5 1 0
OW 4 3331 946 1303 225 9 0 0
VODI 1 479 447 3760 1242 121 19 0
ODI 0 28 33 1000 4715 534 90 0
CDI 0 10 5 369 4684 9924 3679 167
VCDI 0 3 0 141 1267 7242 30434 27072
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76338 14893 214 210 19 6 1 0
OW 9 3229 882 1284 218 7 0 0
VODI 1 442 480 3763 1320 115 22 0
ODI 0 30 27 980 4608 573 93 0
CDI 0 10 5 345 4668 9542 3922 200
VCDI 0 3 0 155 1313 7592 30185 27039

Date: 2025-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77282 14039 153 99 7 3 0 0
OW 42 4039 819 1221 144 10 6 0
VODI 0 944 605 3377 1280 116 38 0
ODI 0 115 88 1215 4132 614 175 0
CDI 0 12 9 543 4456 9507 5795 89
VCDI 0 0 0 121 904 7673 26636 28435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77268 14213 184 149 6 6 0 0
OW 56 3897 760 1194 185 10 5 0
VODI 0 892 650 3379 1366 119 44 0
ODI 0 125 65 1203 3952 684 169 0
CDI 0 22 15 516 4459 9073 5664 90
VCDI 0 0 0 135 955 8031 26768 28434

Date: 2025-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78431 14592 172 135 6 4 6 0
OW 27 4004 1329 1256 82 12 15 0
VODI 0 110 171 4746 1089 57 30 0
ODI 0 15 5 754 6225 460 58 12
CDI 0 0 0 141 3301 12934 1643 52
VCDI 0 0 0 0 831 4538 30151 27349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78386 13000 181 156 7 5 5 0
OW 57 4316 738 1438 203 25 25 0
VODI 15 1208 609 3266 1395 149 67 0
ODI 0 172 104 1406 3879 981 255 16
CDI 0 25 45 748 4841 8978 6136 100
VCDI 0 0 0 18 1209 7867 25415 27297

Date: 2025-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78870 14833 167 171 14 9 0 0
OW 1 3972 1083 1674 144 27 6 0
VODI 0 360 344 4206 1320 141 19 0
ODI 0 11 9 1014 5154 663 103 0
CDI 0 3 4 279 3938 12634 3692 40
VCDI 0 0 0 17 532 6650 28828 23811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78862 12932 161 217 14 8 0 0
OW 9 4645 714 1573 251 52 7 0
VODI 0 1416 550 2917 1471 213 60 0
ODI 0 161 154 1692 3600 928 367 5
CDI 0 23 24 895 4878 10153 7049 180
VCDI 0 2 4 67 888 8770 25165 23666

Date: 2025-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79571 14901 125 116 3 2 0 0
OW 0 4526 874 1391 132 22 0 0
VODI 0 639 516 3592 1581 185 11 0
ODI 0 21 33 1360 4589 1012 205 4
CDI 0 6 7 269 4077 11965 5168 68
VCDI 0 2 3 33 496 3808 27172 26258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79550 12748 178 215 15 16 0 0
OW 21 5329 571 1438 286 61 3 0
VODI 0 1646 457 2277 1628 331 63 0
ODI 0 335 294 1610 2896 1258 360 2
CDI 0 32 55 1168 4976 10292 8068 1387
VCDI 0 5 3 53 1077 5036 24062 24941


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