Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-01

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-05

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 37 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 54 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 161 743 158 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 866 6722 28075
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 25 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 178 624 435 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 989 6445 28055

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 34 427 2653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 34 427 2654

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 84 51 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 43 2122 7650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 15 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 71 357 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 46 1798 7637

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 63 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 76 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 57 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 186 1919 3273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 44 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 65 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 37 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 204 1917 3273

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 8
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 62 0 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 149 1738 5243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 55
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 168 1738 5197

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 60 5 0 2
ODI 0 0 0 0 212 12 8 13
CDI 0 0 0 1 588 256 65 33
VCDI 0 0 0 3 181 465 2822 564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 23 3 0 7
VODI 0 0 0 1 73 4 2 62
ODI 0 0 0 4 92 11 20 51
CDI 0 0 0 0 379 108 250 104
VCDI 0 0 0 4 476 609 2623 388

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 138 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 211 57 28 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 18 180 27 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 103 146 31 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 343 1365 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 67 1471 2030 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 63 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 190 4 3 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 49 38 13 10 2 0
ODI 0 6 25 144 26 29 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 140 360 330 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 183 2507 2025 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4214 2842 25 8 0 0 0 0
OW 13 238 139 174 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 424 103 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 678 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 171 1224 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 76 800 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4195 2704 38 42 0 0 0 0
OW 30 288 90 168 38 0 0 0
VODI 2 90 35 270 146 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 140 555 353 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 210 904 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 93 498 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4033 3125 28 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 153 104 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 392 69 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 428 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 162 1641 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 192 1082 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4033 3116 55 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 111 182 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 22 265 154 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 288 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 190 1469 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 296 1070 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7815 3258 104 80 1 0 0 0
OW 0 47 66 227 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 197 209 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 437 54 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 121 213 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 8 60 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7815 3214 107 133 5 0 0 0
OW 0 72 50 222 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 18 126 213 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 43 306 123 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 180 117 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 32 23 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 9 230 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 244 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 195 994 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 438 3141 271
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 32 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 22 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 17 147 53 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 121 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 301 918 598 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 467 2601 249

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 162 54 16 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 596 144 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 717 4794 1856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 20 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 114 114 29 5
CDI 0 0 0 0 140 517 274 43
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 731 4651 1837

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7855 4149 55 29 3 0 0 0
OW 1 126 110 212 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 9 468 117 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 633 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 206 1026 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 75 471 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7854 3996 57 55 3 0 0 0
OW 2 271 87 345 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 30 305 298 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 414 125 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 196 898 305 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 101 276 0


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