Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-05-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65684 16659 414 590 22 0 0 0
OW 19 1263 460 1288 333 23 4 0
VODI 6 152 169 1448 1515 270 23 0
ODI 3 11 18 443 2150 1439 177 32
CDI 2 0 0 75 1440 4725 2780 187
VCDI 0 0 0 33 587 3407 30399 56493
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65898 16451 313 430 65 1 0 0
OW 21 1460 508 1402 363 45 8 0
VODI 5 286 203 1447 1642 396 73 0
ODI 6 35 35 656 2110 1556 207 14
CDI 0 3 6 143 1348 3702 3189 139
VCDI 0 0 1 78 787 3703 33372 52636
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66240 16668 305 347 34 0 0 0
OW 10 1392 613 1088 235 10 0 0
VODI 6 106 132 2619 1415 66 19 0
ODI 2 3 7 293 2991 715 72 0
CDI 0 1 1 88 1241 5456 1394 17
VCDI 0 0 0 3 588 5056 34649 50861
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66378 16175 318 256 12 0 0 0
OW 6 1715 528 1348 230 2 19 0
VODI 6 83 179 2884 1477 81 54 0
ODI 1 9 2 389 2836 891 146 1
CDI 0 8 4 96 1503 5401 2444 35
VCDI 0 0 0 43 969 6298 31311 50605
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66378 16135 348 312 9 0 0 0
OW 6 1747 504 1333 229 2 19 0
VODI 5 89 169 2780 1482 79 51 0
ODI 2 11 6 451 2827 853 155 1
CDI 0 8 3 104 1558 5507 2651 32
VCDI 0 0 1 36 922 6232 31098 50608

Date: 2025-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67312 15047 208 187 6 0 0 0
OW 30 2194 626 1217 241 4 0 3
VODI 4 239 346 2708 1524 113 12 90
ODI 1 8 13 690 2740 1003 93 80
CDI 0 5 2 166 2180 5581 2439 343
VCDI 0 0 0 22 929 7242 28760 50335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67296 15117 242 234 14 1 0 0
OW 45 2102 584 1265 259 3 0 12
VODI 5 256 341 2564 1504 140 11 77
ODI 0 13 26 761 2774 1015 105 77
CDI 1 5 2 154 2211 5707 2576 398
VCDI 0 0 0 12 858 7077 28612 50287

Date: 2025-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66786 16321 237 177 5 0 0 0
OW 31 2001 864 1062 77 2 0 0
VODI 3 29 76 3410 1079 40 7 11
ODI 0 0 2 341 4229 410 68 41
CDI 0 0 0 45 2324 8908 1059 100
VCDI 0 0 0 23 452 5061 29048 50414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66755 15463 287 327 11 5 0 0
OW 56 2389 511 1483 339 4 1 11
VODI 8 451 325 2129 1816 171 20 85
ODI 1 48 56 805 2710 1191 157 85
CDI 0 0 0 274 2380 6398 3075 292
VCDI 0 0 0 40 910 6652 26929 50093

Date: 2025-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66902 16194 224 217 1 0 0 0
OW 50 2407 709 1101 114 4 0 7
VODI 8 152 260 3232 1373 93 9 33
ODI 0 10 11 591 3675 571 51 62
CDI 0 0 0 205 3358 7120 1109 279
VCDI 0 0 0 35 921 6519 26718 50418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66823 15194 246 284 14 0 0 5
OW 119 2857 557 1405 293 7 0 43
VODI 18 582 302 2279 1846 261 24 92
ODI 0 104 81 905 3040 974 144 114
CDI 0 26 18 434 3002 6125 2565 668
VCDI 0 0 0 74 1247 6940 25154 49877

Date: 2025-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68445 14716 128 192 30 3 0 5
OW 105 2916 575 887 186 29 2 22
VODI 11 427 450 3112 1528 129 23 63
ODI 0 38 29 837 3634 619 83 107
CDI 0 13 27 438 3674 6140 1940 164
VCDI 0 1 1 233 1697 6967 25604 48513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68347 13738 170 232 21 3 0 36
OW 191 3398 480 1125 313 29 4 70
VODI 23 747 376 2381 1959 218 54 87
ODI 0 187 131 1106 3253 1004 178 94
CDI 0 40 53 628 3240 6128 2930 529
VCDI 0 1 0 227 1963 6505 24486 48058


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