Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-03-20

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-03-24

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 40 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 42 25 34 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 45 37 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 54 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 82 376 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 619 5849 29557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 40 11 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 30 13 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 35 41 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 38 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 97 433 269 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 519 5662 29553

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 444 2669
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 444 2669

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 366 9593
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 366 9581

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 1232 4375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 44 1232 4375

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 41 1662 3578
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 43 1669 3578

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 71 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 16 18 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 43 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 13 18 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 33 27 3 6
VCDI 0 0 0 4 33 253 3532 2106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 11 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 3 30 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 16 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 7 6 16 42 37 4 6
VCDI 0 0 3 21 43 252 3531 2106

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4430 3211 38 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 362 168 122 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 31 335 68 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 5 124 310 39 0 0
CDI 0 1 7 51 261 545 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 74 321 599 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4430 3102 34 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 337 101 84 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 124 89 221 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 43 10 177 168 17 0 0
CDI 0 27 6 111 399 444 231 0
VCDI 0 7 9 81 107 444 477 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4862 3030 48 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 122 102 106 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 16 194 79 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 156 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 111 353 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1030 1315 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4862 2991 54 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 152 64 91 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 46 138 58 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 97 96 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 177 253 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 45 1128 1314 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7863 3202 117 169 8 0 0 0
OW 0 65 68 198 86 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 102 125 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 107 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 79 173 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 368 154 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7863 3136 109 129 13 0 0 0
OW 0 131 65 191 75 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 130 165 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 67 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 85 270 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 230 121 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 6 0 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 9 20 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 12 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 86 189 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 83 1678 3388 255
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 0 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 6 3 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 7 20 27 35 3 0
VCDI 0 0 1 48 155 1836 3390 255

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 8 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 361 3865 4258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 26 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 357 3847 4252

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6577 4061 79 107 15 0 0 0
OW 0 209 93 204 38 1 0 0
VODI 0 29 9 225 162 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 445 84 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 369 1008 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 26 1165 778 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6577 3930 72 113 17 0 0 0
OW 0 280 71 178 43 4 0 0
VODI 0 64 32 164 136 12 0 0
ODI 0 23 6 95 278 47 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 28 524 797 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 57 1409 774 0


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