Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-03-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65354 16723 435 637 111 0 0 0
OW 22 1270 335 968 361 14 0 0
VODI 0 257 182 907 933 216 0 0
ODI 0 74 23 430 917 496 37 3
CDI 0 60 17 165 1312 2779 1096 64
VCDI 0 48 42 252 580 8553 25494 63576
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65048 16724 397 442 100 2 0 0
OW 24 1362 358 988 362 24 0 0
VODI 0 288 223 924 776 183 0 0
ODI 0 45 36 490 765 454 15 0
CDI 0 40 13 229 1255 2389 972 27
VCDI 0 5 25 197 1005 10601 34315 53640
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65397 16780 373 414 80 0 0 0
OW 11 985 449 1027 316 9 0 0
VODI 0 141 112 1022 906 76 0 0
ODI 0 28 17 325 1325 495 2 0
CDI 0 8 16 121 1557 3755 586 36
VCDI 0 1 4 93 576 10937 34627 52136
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64622 17002 388 409 57 0 0 0
OW 0 910 365 1161 280 3 0 0
VODI 0 214 112 975 920 89 0 0
ODI 0 44 26 349 1246 528 3 4
CDI 0 6 17 172 1430 3852 1202 24
VCDI 0 0 2 151 630 9819 35215 52516
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64622 17013 417 452 59 0 0 0
OW 0 916 329 1143 282 4 0 0
VODI 0 198 126 955 913 101 0 0
ODI 0 43 21 343 1263 506 7 4
CDI 0 6 15 190 1466 3968 1166 31
VCDI 0 0 2 134 580 9712 35247 52509

Date: 2025-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64819 16574 338 402 23 0 0 0
OW 0 1102 435 946 262 11 0 0
VODI 0 321 120 928 882 117 0 0
ODI 0 87 88 373 1017 541 59 4
CDI 0 90 60 379 1384 2681 1812 210
VCDI 0 68 18 194 618 8010 32489 57281
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64819 16585 383 460 29 0 0 0
OW 0 1111 375 950 263 12 0 0
VODI 0 309 149 880 917 114 1 0
ODI 0 85 78 387 1026 524 67 4
CDI 0 82 51 342 1355 2792 1914 113
VCDI 0 70 23 203 596 7918 32378 57378

Date: 2025-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65566 16732 320 424 26 0 0 0
OW 0 1116 588 809 207 1 0 0
VODI 0 140 108 1301 771 33 0 0
ODI 0 15 8 299 1571 353 3 2
CDI 0 8 7 139 1144 3353 329 62
VCDI 0 4 0 68 352 7232 26358 65294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65566 16351 345 392 33 0 0 0
OW 0 1155 388 856 228 9 0 0
VODI 0 341 217 883 714 83 0 0
ODI 0 105 38 451 950 359 13 3
CDI 0 48 30 260 1611 2733 992 89
VCDI 0 15 13 198 535 7788 25685 65266

Date: 2025-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65240 17087 417 392 34 0 0 0
OW 0 1193 418 821 198 6 0 0
VODI 0 289 191 1051 600 73 0 0
ODI 0 40 32 457 1215 430 0 0
CDI 0 35 16 207 1335 2967 330 57
VCDI 0 7 8 165 649 7465 23828 67490
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65240 16752 429 483 38 0 0 0
OW 0 1145 299 766 257 7 0 0
VODI 0 493 208 783 632 144 0 0
ODI 0 134 69 412 901 425 1 0
CDI 0 84 47 362 1491 3327 566 89
VCDI 0 43 30 287 712 7038 23591 67458

Date: 2025-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66120 16158 346 393 35 0 0 0
OW 8 1300 393 855 242 20 0 0
VODI 12 320 130 1110 569 85 4 0
ODI 1 110 21 484 1170 412 12 9
CDI 0 74 47 174 1304 3325 534 107
VCDI 0 22 31 173 736 7119 26246 64532
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66122 15766 367 512 52 0 0 0
OW 19 1179 247 789 280 30 0 0
VODI 0 568 172 746 598 180 5 0
ODI 0 181 87 505 846 482 15 30
CDI 0 209 48 468 1545 3378 986 152
VCDI 0 81 47 169 735 6891 25790 64466


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