Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-03-13

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-03-17

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 9 10 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 6 32 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 67 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 405 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1053 7908 27098
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 8 13 52 8 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 26 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 4 60 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 57 65 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 438 621 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 976 7414 27098

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 902 2193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 902 2193

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 1175 8757
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 28 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 1153 8768

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 42 1655 3956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 42 1655 3956

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 530 6677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 530 6673

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 27 13 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 443 3361 1422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 8 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 27 14 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 439 3358 1427

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 101 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 12 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 5 32 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 12 32 20 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 16 73 102 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 649 5090 19
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 81 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 53 7 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 7 17 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 14 16 3 1 0
CDI 0 9 5 22 59 65 33 0
VCDI 0 0 1 6 79 703 5076 19

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3262 4139 106 81 1 0 0 0
OW 0 254 108 150 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 29 362 121 1 0 0
ODI 0 7 6 85 273 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 327 527 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 44 792 475 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3262 4047 78 80 4 0 0 0
OW 0 263 104 155 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 57 298 104 7 0 0
ODI 0 19 3 120 243 45 0 0
CDI 0 10 6 39 353 580 78 0
VCDI 0 0 1 15 74 724 441 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4406 3355 79 87 36 0 0 0
OW 0 79 74 123 47 12 0 0
VODI 0 3 14 174 99 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 171 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 71 329 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 911 1504 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4406 3247 82 106 38 0 0 0
OW 0 159 44 79 47 16 0 0
VODI 0 31 37 143 59 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 81 109 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 171 371 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 893 1507 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7809 3196 70 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 143 103 265 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 8 178 131 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 181 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 145 345 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 163 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7809 2996 46 50 0 0 0 0
OW 0 331 93 212 66 7 0 0
VODI 0 13 41 205 140 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 67 149 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 186 218 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 249 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 1 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 4 11 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 13 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 38 84 141 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 91 1841 3423 20
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 0 1 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 1 5 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 17 4 11 19 0 4 0
VCDI 0 9 2 59 168 1982 3427 20

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 141 23 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1985 5203 1140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 94 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 2049 5162 1142

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7114 3357 9 101 32 0 0 0
OW 8 467 78 136 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 20 208 122 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 322 44 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 651 881 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 213 1069 737 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7106 3261 10 69 31 0 0 0
OW 16 458 41 111 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 39 162 81 1 0 0
ODI 0 16 10 111 208 23 1 0
CDI 0 3 7 77 659 614 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 375 1357 739 0


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