Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-03-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67510 16969 323 242 22 0 0 0
OW 1 1377 464 859 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 552 257 1094 631 19 0 0
ODI 0 125 84 525 798 339 0 0
CDI 0 57 25 373 1369 1833 220 34
VCDI 0 28 39 231 995 7865 20460 68916
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68092 16068 398 429 40 0 0 0
OW 4 1222 410 941 164 2 0 0
VODI 0 484 192 998 798 13 0 0
ODI 0 126 101 542 768 229 18 0
CDI 0 66 26 341 1067 1336 460 6
VCDI 0 34 49 233 936 8627 21308 68215
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67253 16779 451 598 71 0 0 0
OW 6 1168 413 945 209 2 0 0
VODI 0 235 158 1271 715 20 0 0
ODI 0 54 31 457 1162 148 0 0
CDI 0 10 10 217 1195 1632 124 6
VCDI 0 21 17 162 805 9039 19642 69717
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67285 16282 351 586 120 8 0 0
OW 18 1272 459 883 165 15 0 0
VODI 1 365 176 1050 735 49 0 0
ODI 0 81 36 491 906 207 1 0
CDI 0 25 5 336 1191 1474 236 67
VCDI 0 34 22 154 1132 8897 22564 67064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67274 16327 377 640 122 7 0 0
OW 29 1226 422 849 171 12 0 0
VODI 1 367 189 997 709 55 0 0
ODI 0 75 33 506 869 212 2 0
CDI 0 26 4 338 1224 1467 266 50
VCDI 0 38 24 170 1154 8897 22533 67081

Date: 2025-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66326 16727 356 611 92 0 0 0
OW 17 1546 357 841 207 6 0 0
VODI 1 481 156 1117 659 65 0 0
ODI 0 101 68 648 851 227 8 0
CDI 0 21 27 377 1507 1203 209 71
VCDI 0 4 9 200 1186 7570 24281 66610
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66321 16780 371 708 104 0 0 0
OW 22 1474 320 766 221 11 0 0
VODI 1 488 179 1035 596 65 1 0
ODI 0 101 60 679 853 226 20 0
CDI 0 30 26 396 1501 1171 277 71
VCDI 0 7 17 210 1227 7598 24200 66610

Date: 2025-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66897 16435 450 553 55 0 0 0
OW 31 1480 542 899 184 6 0 0
VODI 0 211 169 1490 702 37 0 0
ODI 0 3 16 468 1414 352 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 213 1244 2597 455 39
VCDI 0 0 0 55 851 5481 20905 70494
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66915 15922 485 600 76 0 0 0
OW 13 1338 342 875 257 3 0 0
VODI 0 469 162 987 568 125 0 0
ODI 0 213 74 577 1001 386 12 0
CDI 0 168 87 313 1207 1713 497 53
VCDI 0 19 27 326 1341 6246 20866 70480

Date: 2025-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66474 16316 419 732 81 1 0 0
OW 59 1292 373 864 318 11 0 0
VODI 12 323 126 944 910 127 0 0
ODI 0 102 43 358 1054 474 27 0
CDI 0 59 43 254 1186 2471 678 63
VCDI 0 15 17 107 619 6063 21768 69960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66429 15943 399 717 93 0 0 0
OW 64 1127 280 805 382 9 0 0
VODI 24 415 202 763 792 215 5 0
ODI 11 232 49 464 926 438 57 0
CDI 17 192 18 233 1067 1926 677 45
VCDI 0 198 73 277 908 6559 21734 69978

Date: 2025-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65354 16723 435 637 111 0 0 0
OW 22 1270 335 968 361 14 0 0
VODI 0 257 182 907 933 216 0 0
ODI 0 74 23 430 917 496 37 3
CDI 0 60 17 165 1312 2779 1096 64
VCDI 0 48 42 252 580 8553 25494 63576
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65283 16417 477 674 113 0 0 0
OW 62 1008 260 930 385 13 1 0
VODI 17 437 117 808 902 238 14 0
ODI 14 210 62 371 946 479 94 2
CDI 0 198 64 240 1089 2139 815 62
VCDI 0 162 54 336 779 9189 25703 63579


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