Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-01-23

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-01-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 46 7 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 44 30 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 43 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 25 55 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 122 95 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 85 550 4948 30751
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 36 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 9 20 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 18 22 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 28 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 104 38 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 130 607 4946 30751

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 587 2519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 587 2519

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 257 2709 6993
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 257 2709 7011

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 159 2421 3073
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 159 2421 3073

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 236 2942 4042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 236 2942 4042

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 202 1547 3542
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 203 1551 3543

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 117 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 12 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 12 25 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 26 11 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 68 188 6 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 426 3001 2229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 2 8 1 11 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 15 2 51 8 0
CDI 0 8 17 34 23 143 69 3
VCDI 0 0 1 41 115 420 2930 2234

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4243 3964 43 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 272 91 98 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 36 341 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 59 272 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 215 407 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 213 826 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4243 3925 48 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 233 40 96 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 54 209 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 23 110 175 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 50 265 340 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 123 291 788 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5124 3227 82 44 1 0 0 0
OW 0 161 73 153 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 96 96 9 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 40 73 30 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 17 90 101 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 60 435 1532 186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5124 3141 72 44 2 0 0 0
OW 0 152 34 71 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 26 81 37 3 0 0
ODI 0 23 26 66 75 23 0 0
CDI 0 8 12 79 131 124 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 93 425 1517 186

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8114 3111 97 108 22 1 0 0
OW 0 82 67 145 66 8 0 0
VODI 0 1 10 183 83 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 100 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 119 164 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 165 184 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8114 3052 101 122 35 3 0 0
OW 0 129 38 120 58 22 0 0
VODI 0 13 34 129 57 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 84 89 23 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 125 123 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 178 137 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 53 1 0 6 9 0 0
OW 0 36 15 8 0 9 0 0
VODI 0 1 7 34 22 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 30 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 58 99 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 101 274 3094 1831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 55 1 0 6 10 0 0
OW 0 24 6 3 1 16 0 0
VODI 0 11 12 16 9 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 23 19 32 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 38 93 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 144 263 3033 1831

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 14 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 132 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 676 5120 2518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 58 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 764 5147 2518

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7158 4816 96 51 4 0 0 0
OW 0 558 85 169 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 92 21 283 121 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 65 190 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 88 428 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 587 756 52
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7158 4561 99 46 2 0 0 0
OW 0 516 63 158 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 282 22 236 136 8 0 0
ODI 0 85 14 93 120 98 0 0
CDI 0 31 8 30 113 254 51 0
VCDI 0 2 0 36 30 712 718 52


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