Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-01-09

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-01-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 53 19 20 2 0 0 0
OW 0 18 3 27 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 8 21 25 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 37 81 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 111 232 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 602 5764 29666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 41 18 22 1 0 0 0
OW 0 26 2 27 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 11 19 30 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 35 83 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 99 179 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 117 656 5777 29666

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 264 2809
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 266 2809

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 70 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 243 2610 7028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 264 2612 7028

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 13 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 121 284 1908 3298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 126 285 1908 3298

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 1057 4214
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 1052 4208

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 213 30 8 0 0 0 0
OW 4 103 21 92 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 12 77 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 7 42 50 7 0 0
CDI 0 19 8 31 85 108 54 1
VCDI 0 20 15 52 118 375 3891 765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6 224 29 6 0 0 0 0
OW 3 94 22 81 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 14 92 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 5 41 66 3 0 0
CDI 0 19 10 30 92 100 76 2
VCDI 0 18 13 52 100 387 3869 764

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4664 3789 162 182 7 0 0 0
OW 1 29 14 168 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 7 89 183 29 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 34 133 143 1 0
CDI 0 11 2 18 103 441 394 0
VCDI 0 9 6 25 110 97 385 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4664 3742 147 150 5 0 0 0
OW 1 71 30 171 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 6 116 176 36 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 47 149 194 3 0
CDI 0 11 4 15 112 387 410 0
VCDI 0 4 4 17 96 93 367 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5181 3013 11 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 218 104 118 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 23 178 91 9 0 0
ODI 0 19 2 53 64 17 0 0
CDI 0 13 12 22 140 126 10 0
VCDI 0 0 10 60 91 456 1594 35
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5181 2930 14 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 281 96 98 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 26 177 82 9 0 0
ODI 0 25 3 63 58 18 0 0
CDI 0 13 18 31 133 128 6 0
VCDI 0 0 5 61 105 453 1598 35

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8111 3027 57 67 0 0 0 0
OW 0 100 25 115 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 22 49 68 0 0 0
ODI 0 25 18 41 67 59 4 0
CDI 0 1 15 102 171 187 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 63 260 203 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8111 3042 63 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 22 109 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 18 45 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 21 44 64 47 0 0
CDI 0 1 13 99 174 230 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 70 229 180 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 4 0 13 0 0 0
OW 0 1 8 19 77 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 30 45 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 37 58 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 119 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 438 3164 1565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 4 0 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 16 82 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 45 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 39 69 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 122 148 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 430 3114 1564

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 386 57 91 11 0 0 0
OW 0 64 18 63 103 32 0 0
VODI 0 12 12 41 159 155 59 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 120 189 353 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 163 192 367 84
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 254 2144 3381
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 360 41 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 92 35 98 68 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 11 46 232 142 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 113 214 346 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 142 187 381 64
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 278 2179 3401

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12061 1603 91 173 53 0 0 0
OW 3 200 17 62 71 5 0 0
VODI 0 58 5 64 52 26 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 38 103 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 17 147 105 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 150 494 45
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12048 1553 78 151 25 0 0 0
OW 16 240 29 62 81 5 0 0
VODI 0 69 6 68 66 24 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 49 76 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 24 164 136 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 137 494 45


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