Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-12-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79977 15668 463 423 18 4 0 0
OW 112 1160 457 1302 198 47 0 0
VODI 43 296 135 1225 1144 272 0 0
ODI 1 39 39 537 1097 583 12 0
CDI 4 2 2 258 1356 3211 1742 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 342 4497 22898 55157
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78665 14852 391 404 7 0 0 0
OW 57 1607 428 1174 380 32 0 0
VODI 65 445 166 1244 1030 340 18 0
ODI 3 77 57 468 1121 921 76 0
CDI 5 17 29 294 1204 2204 1777 10
VCDI 0 3 14 63 592 3754 20603 60146
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78800 14204 298 275 7 0 0 0
OW 46 2014 549 921 104 0 0 0
VODI 8 353 223 1569 1030 41 3 0
ODI 4 29 48 396 1640 717 12 0
CDI 2 17 45 242 1050 2647 483 10
VCDI 0 0 2 173 688 4606 20314 61173
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78769 13846 166 182 18 0 0 0
OW 135 2334 384 658 163 1 0 0
VODI 27 745 273 1142 916 167 4 0
ODI 10 158 81 550 1322 757 29 0
CDI 1 61 64 506 1436 2075 554 18
VCDI 0 26 39 271 1253 4740 21771 59091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78838 14872 337 400 36 0 0 0
OW 73 1676 341 854 306 12 0 0
VODI 24 481 192 987 1164 308 5 0
ODI 7 118 64 460 1316 889 57 0
CDI 0 22 65 425 1253 2246 904 36
VCDI 0 1 8 183 1033 4285 21392 59073

Date: 2024-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78069 14110 218 133 24 5 0 0
OW 174 2166 391 619 164 35 0 0
VODI 49 862 250 1382 720 158 6 0
ODI 25 181 117 649 1165 500 35 0
CDI 2 100 64 487 1448 2070 1033 19
VCDI 0 133 42 236 856 5131 22725 58190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78185 15181 399 389 76 20 0 0
OW 65 1485 345 886 312 67 2 0
VODI 42 552 174 1210 870 311 17 0
ODI 27 152 86 493 1227 689 78 1
CDI 0 90 51 376 1304 1908 1160 53
VCDI 0 92 27 152 588 4904 22542 58155

Date: 2024-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77720 15228 209 296 1 0 0 0
OW 43 1792 690 998 92 11 0 0
VODI 8 217 125 1992 915 34 0 0
ODI 4 51 20 457 1740 278 0 1
CDI 0 37 35 259 1209 2657 282 17
VCDI 0 0 0 89 518 4740 17951 64027
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77731 15206 374 598 60 23 0 0
OW 33 1353 349 960 338 48 1 0
VODI 10 512 224 1298 941 192 11 0
ODI 1 124 64 612 1140 508 63 0
CDI 0 78 41 455 1329 1771 1010 105
VCDI 0 52 27 168 667 5178 17148 63940

Date: 2025-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76935 16031 307 273 16 0 0 0
OW 108 1638 535 1065 245 9 0 0
VODI 16 342 179 1104 832 231 4 0
ODI 7 92 85 520 880 870 32 0
CDI 2 73 38 473 880 2235 835 16
VCDI 0 22 19 188 970 5637 26781 54218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76950 15913 453 446 61 17 1 0
OW 95 1301 331 750 320 75 17 0
VODI 13 578 188 1089 756 305 35 0
ODI 8 167 85 593 925 543 165 0
CDI 2 122 70 482 997 1821 1048 74
VCDI 0 117 36 263 764 6221 26386 54160

Date: 2025-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77371 15032 328 403 23 0 0 0
OW 117 1496 427 1049 441 54 0 0
VODI 8 461 219 997 654 217 54 0
ODI 1 151 62 607 855 455 144 0
CDI 7 121 54 548 1133 2133 926 8
VCDI 2 111 62 407 1061 6904 24288 55352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77381 14664 393 565 123 1 0 0
OW 107 1379 278 745 375 68 0 0
VODI 8 714 241 995 665 291 42 0
ODI 2 225 103 616 745 493 189 0
CDI 8 186 90 650 1216 1539 735 33
VCDI 0 204 47 440 1043 7371 24446 55327


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