Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-12-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87345 13738 329 210 0 0 0 0
OW 261 1771 398 960 170 5 0 0
VODI 25 510 248 1001 766 191 2 0
ODI 2 60 52 518 784 462 24 0
CDI 1 20 21 252 1280 1888 218 19
VCDI 0 10 0 74 723 5601 22393 52411
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86308 13465 254 175 29 0 0 0
OW 295 1757 405 872 207 15 0 0
VODI 40 574 189 1297 689 231 0 0
ODI 23 101 110 556 720 588 40 0
CDI 11 15 24 319 1248 2227 650 8
VCDI 11 0 0 19 618 5245 24471 50937
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83386 15972 391 206 7 30 0 0
OW 75 1476 500 890 135 23 0 0
VODI 16 216 209 1188 731 77 0 0
ODI 3 23 52 391 1076 379 1 0
CDI 3 0 20 192 1215 2670 467 8
VCDI 0 0 0 62 668 5011 24816 52158
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81251 15637 443 376 6 15 0 0
OW 138 1158 487 1265 205 46 0 0
VODI 7 218 163 1145 1024 241 0 0
ODI 0 27 39 495 990 520 8 0
CDI 5 3 12 237 1113 3258 1642 8
VCDI 0 0 1 55 648 4357 23428 54072
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81276 15867 620 703 24 13 0 0
OW 111 974 367 1263 392 50 0 0
VODI 9 189 114 961 1073 333 0 0
ODI 1 13 34 408 956 815 33 0
CDI 3 0 10 211 956 2994 1990 20
VCDI 1 0 0 27 585 4232 23055 54060

Date: 2024-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79012 15600 479 396 9 0 0 0
OW 56 1201 447 1332 274 43 0 0
VODI 62 358 176 1233 1076 323 2 0
ODI 1 54 42 531 1136 778 39 0
CDI 4 5 18 218 1297 2926 1613 22
VCDI 0 0 0 38 389 4475 20058 59020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79015 16004 655 780 43 0 0 0
OW 50 860 289 1280 421 59 0 0
VODI 65 313 167 1046 1235 525 2 0
ODI 3 36 43 443 993 1044 102 0
CDI 2 5 8 166 1115 2831 2115 39
VCDI 0 0 0 33 374 4086 19493 59003

Date: 2024-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78529 15055 345 205 12 1 0 0
OW 17 1757 630 1023 94 0 0 0
VODI 5 177 121 1769 979 34 0 0
ODI 4 11 28 344 2240 469 2 0
CDI 4 11 19 166 1177 2776 364 1
VCDI 0 0 5 100 467 3579 20285 61938
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78523 14827 492 659 37 1 0 0
OW 22 1462 348 1152 389 35 0 0
VODI 6 544 158 996 1231 339 26 0
ODI 4 147 80 386 1256 975 124 0
CDI 4 20 57 284 1126 2110 2254 17
VCDI 0 11 13 130 930 3399 18247 61922

Date: 2024-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78778 14046 253 216 16 0 0 0
OW 107 2036 445 832 180 1 0 0
VODI 87 595 256 1243 936 110 4 0
ODI 5 88 53 551 1295 827 20 0
CDI 1 40 64 368 1092 2292 660 47
VCDI 0 5 21 233 846 4802 19432 61860
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78777 13863 380 487 79 0 0 0
OW 95 1909 341 917 438 18 5 0
VODI 60 733 170 973 1136 295 52 0
ODI 46 211 84 471 942 1097 182 0
CDI 0 86 73 338 907 1941 1685 35
VCDI 0 8 44 257 863 4681 18192 61872

Date: 2024-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78154 14159 200 183 32 0 0 0
OW 190 2158 374 732 130 17 0 0
VODI 94 797 251 1294 800 138 0 0
ODI 26 195 118 680 1282 532 8 0
CDI 2 103 92 566 1331 2030 821 21
VCDI 0 58 43 262 1182 4925 21023 59740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78197 14302 324 554 94 27 0 0
OW 173 1902 328 924 353 72 0 0
VODI 73 834 180 1139 1020 271 12 0
ODI 23 277 95 426 1176 636 147 2
CDI 0 115 117 461 1261 1602 1317 88
VCDI 0 40 34 213 853 5034 20376 59671


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