Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-11-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106056 10091 408 585 79 0 0 0
OW 115 1137 340 1080 335 0 0 0
VODI 18 291 223 951 646 22 0 0
ODI 1 49 50 461 887 136 12 3
CDI 0 39 18 240 1069 1075 136 11
VCDI 0 19 16 96 525 6012 19895 41616
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104248 10423 427 767 46 0 0 0
OW 85 963 307 1100 240 14 0 0
VODI 18 248 149 1098 977 109 0 0
ODI 0 43 43 451 960 321 5 0
CDI 0 6 4 302 1060 1141 160 16
VCDI 0 9 0 54 1087 6762 20216 40884
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103215 10503 470 681 131 1 0 0
OW 156 709 339 913 193 7 0 0
VODI 35 160 146 1201 682 20 0 0
ODI 3 11 9 483 1390 206 0 1
CDI 0 1 1 191 1362 1898 208 7
VCDI 0 0 0 82 1119 6249 22168 39792
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102619 10298 376 557 64 0 0 0
OW 97 872 338 948 256 16 0 0
VODI 42 232 164 988 584 89 0 0
ODI 0 80 24 439 1012 548 0 0
CDI 0 32 5 182 1216 2075 325 6
VCDI 0 1 0 32 771 7302 24638 37515
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102597 10288 394 553 94 0 0 0
OW 119 861 294 945 153 12 0 0
VODI 42 239 191 969 651 81 0 0
ODI 0 88 22 459 1052 538 0 0
CDI 0 38 5 174 1191 2096 388 7
VCDI 0 1 1 46 762 7303 24575 37514

Date: 2024-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101349 10667 297 476 64 1 0 0
OW 105 892 334 956 374 62 0 0
VODI 23 218 171 910 669 158 0 0
ODI 4 84 23 454 850 592 5 1
CDI 1 16 1 165 1094 2008 312 16
VCDI 0 3 0 37 317 5673 23664 41697
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101338 10693 325 524 105 1 0 0
OW 109 839 297 866 311 50 0 0
VODI 30 239 176 933 698 165 0 0
ODI 4 63 26 481 815 578 16 1
CDI 1 33 2 157 1109 2090 397 12
VCDI 0 13 0 37 330 5610 23568 41701

Date: 2024-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99178 12188 317 232 8 0 0 0
OW 73 899 500 777 91 0 0 0
VODI 18 84 105 1489 643 18 0 0
ODI 1 5 3 349 1476 276 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 61 928 3067 100 10
VCDI 0 18 0 2 128 5164 21380 45153
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99139 11801 375 497 78 0 0 0
OW 105 1022 285 858 382 17 0 0
VODI 21 295 205 841 918 254 0 0
ODI 4 54 58 441 661 569 35 0
CDI 1 6 2 216 975 1916 244 8
VCDI 0 18 0 57 260 5769 21201 45155

Date: 2024-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96776 12555 427 434 26 0 0 0
OW 226 1014 354 852 202 12 0 0
VODI 26 213 103 1079 846 186 2 0
ODI 2 17 6 304 1247 643 21 1
CDI 1 5 2 90 861 2777 302 15
VCDI 0 16 0 41 281 4629 24707 43442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96839 12085 360 603 119 10 0 0
OW 138 1208 259 663 376 62 0 0
VODI 37 439 212 851 1091 586 25 0
ODI 16 53 51 395 809 749 38 0
CDI 1 18 8 212 714 2043 255 9
VCDI 0 17 2 76 354 4797 24714 43449

Date: 2024-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94764 12982 418 507 4 0 0 0
OW 628 920 320 947 215 3 0 0
VODI 121 176 120 986 971 117 0 0
ODI 15 22 9 369 1001 604 18 0
CDI 2 13 2 84 1061 2731 492 20
VCDI 0 18 1 11 425 4890 25089 43667
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94550 12511 372 755 87 28 0 0
OW 604 1097 228 709 376 64 0 0
VODI 274 417 197 760 1018 396 6 0
ODI 86 61 67 427 728 903 43 1
CDI 16 27 5 236 987 2014 501 7
VCDI 0 18 1 17 481 4940 25049 43679


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