Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-10-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124377 14898 639 1368 951 0 0 0
OW 13 1561 432 1279 801 90 0 0
VODI 1 308 185 987 916 329 0 0
ODI 0 81 50 339 799 662 3 0
CDI 0 51 54 335 717 1930 329 0
VCDI 0 6 12 164 428 5192 18518 15938
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123615 12876 428 934 523 121 0 0
OW 3 2081 469 1136 1350 476 0 0
VODI 0 510 209 1386 1270 614 0 0
ODI 0 129 67 469 845 660 32 0
CDI 0 55 78 333 866 1523 364 0
VCDI 0 2 9 163 475 6808 17214 16650
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122263 12576 563 848 119 9 0 0
OW 9 1997 646 1286 625 101 0 0
VODI 1 187 191 1255 1143 444 1 0
ODI 0 52 41 436 1793 1077 53 0
CDI 0 25 43 185 2517 3469 157 0
VCDI 0 1 15 116 1148 7295 17315 14741
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119342 12946 411 840 737 0 0 0
OW 33 1004 399 1045 876 113 0 0
VODI 2 114 121 918 1609 946 4 0
ODI 0 28 42 339 1290 1575 38 0
CDI 0 21 20 296 1360 4191 398 0
VCDI 0 13 14 87 549 10145 19940 12937
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119353 13103 431 962 942 31 0 0
OW 22 859 379 899 734 223 0 0
VODI 2 110 126 930 1499 909 2 0
ODI 0 23 40 345 1359 1659 27 0
CDI 0 20 17 297 1282 4210 448 0
VCDI 0 11 14 92 605 9938 19903 12937

Date: 2024-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113551 17019 269 491 245 40 0 0
OW 0 1132 427 813 884 437 0 0
VODI 3 165 189 738 1068 855 22 0
ODI 0 30 52 393 1072 1852 111 0
CDI 0 4 30 301 1167 4270 771 11
VCDI 0 0 1 78 551 9303 21233 15165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113550 17195 333 631 508 153 0 0
OW 1 967 372 689 742 444 6 0
VODI 3 162 187 750 967 930 40 0
ODI 0 24 49 378 973 1760 87 0
CDI 0 2 27 289 1195 4371 901 7
VCDI 0 0 0 77 602 9099 21103 15169

Date: 2024-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117956 11675 302 179 17 0 0 0
OW 4 921 558 765 146 16 0 0
VODI 3 20 100 1436 607 105 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 309 1533 1136 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 1064 6354 755 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 463 8489 21086 18541
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117943 11041 341 486 312 98 4 0
OW 17 1321 374 717 443 444 53 0
VODI 3 243 191 878 761 802 188 0
ODI 0 11 49 395 695 1484 185 0
CDI 0 0 9 296 860 3554 730 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 759 9718 20768 18541

Date: 2024-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116670 11554 419 412 21 0 0 0
OW 10 997 418 925 146 0 0 0
VODI 3 144 140 1111 634 67 6 0
ODI 0 0 30 406 1150 432 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 181 1537 3552 421 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 388 11617 22522 18815
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116661 10613 439 747 367 21 0 0
OW 19 1648 265 623 470 126 23 0
VODI 3 354 198 875 693 593 178 0
ODI 0 67 69 437 883 1083 241 0
CDI 0 13 36 299 999 2801 849 0
VCDI 0 0 0 56 464 11044 21671 18815

Date: 2024-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114454 12272 488 616 71 0 0 0
OW 9 1027 360 1072 264 5 0 0
VODI 3 186 186 1012 813 113 3 0
ODI 0 17 29 392 1017 467 25 0
CDI 0 6 8 216 1469 2291 428 0
VCDI 0 1 0 17 503 10454 25600 18849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114455 11647 531 1146 405 73 0 0
OW 8 1281 222 680 495 106 5 0
VODI 3 482 229 680 813 716 131 0
ODI 0 67 57 467 727 940 302 0
CDI 0 23 22 285 1244 2341 1065 0
VCDI 0 9 10 67 453 9154 24553 18849


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