Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-10-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131199 16310 426 226 0 0 0 0
OW 24 958 533 1300 168 0 0 0
VODI 5 73 129 917 1054 86 0 0
ODI 2 14 22 226 1128 654 15 0
CDI 7 24 5 189 697 2527 959 0
VCDI 1 24 2 34 403 4561 15468 14373
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129173 17007 546 585 4 0 0 0
OW 43 1128 497 1175 328 0 0 0
VODI 0 230 105 718 1031 329 0 0
ODI 0 95 47 239 685 860 29 0
CDI 0 63 82 289 578 1875 1113 0
VCDI 0 5 0 108 585 4222 16603 14366
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125827 19029 722 722 13 0 0 0
OW 8 823 463 1268 122 0 0 0
VODI 1 124 77 1207 867 16 0 0
ODI 1 45 32 219 1268 296 18 0
CDI 9 40 48 232 766 2632 453 1
VCDI 0 19 6 55 302 5372 16073 15567
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124850 16521 931 1708 71 0 0 0
OW 20 1335 333 1078 454 28 0 0
VODI 0 228 126 985 963 140 0 0
ODI 0 52 52 277 942 609 0 0
CDI 1 61 58 290 682 2060 305 1
VCDI 0 24 6 98 436 4961 18504 15553
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124842 16703 954 1891 144 13 0 0
OW 28 1145 306 917 449 29 0 0
VODI 0 234 135 945 861 169 0 0
ODI 0 54 47 296 884 498 0 0
CDI 1 60 61 285 764 2022 249 2
VCDI 0 25 3 102 446 5067 18560 15552

Date: 2024-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123721 13951 598 1099 537 237 0 0
OW 7 1758 458 1154 1610 114 0 0
VODI 0 466 202 1142 1055 412 6 0
ODI 0 92 49 421 844 650 1 0
CDI 0 30 45 361 792 1880 295 0
VCDI 0 8 14 115 411 4973 19055 16180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123708 14297 720 1314 870 271 0 0
OW 20 1411 359 997 1490 147 4 0
VODI 0 459 177 1135 864 389 3 0
ODI 0 97 50 388 746 541 0 0
CDI 0 33 43 334 883 1771 173 0
VCDI 0 8 17 124 396 5147 19177 16180

Date: 2024-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123380 12716 429 804 102 14 0 0
OW 3 2289 762 1031 425 60 0 0
VODI 4 133 133 1562 1226 458 2 0
ODI 0 13 21 409 2235 944 54 0
CDI 0 1 4 219 1675 3721 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 543 6408 16959 15791
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123380 11976 466 1078 656 297 1 0
OW 4 1922 414 962 963 1004 37 0
VODI 3 981 279 920 1420 759 56 0
ODI 0 161 112 484 926 547 14 0
CDI 0 105 63 445 1075 1331 168 0
VCDI 0 7 15 169 1166 7667 16919 15791

Date: 2024-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121791 11509 571 1305 210 0 0 0
OW 44 1347 470 1435 570 106 0 0
VODI 1 117 136 1435 1367 683 1 0
ODI 0 24 16 439 1371 1384 42 0
CDI 0 24 14 290 1617 4388 206 0
VCDI 0 12 13 85 535 9887 18762 12536
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121780 10381 460 1466 336 206 4 0
OW 55 1652 301 1008 944 1154 90 0
VODI 1 756 320 1244 1593 1817 121 0
ODI 0 139 87 692 1045 1099 25 0
CDI 0 68 27 402 1309 2824 318 0
VCDI 0 37 25 177 443 9348 18453 12536

Date: 2024-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118554 12713 433 607 600 3 0 0
OW 27 976 300 1008 1169 72 0 0
VODI 2 104 183 791 1225 979 26 0
ODI 0 18 21 366 1181 1748 241 0
CDI 0 15 19 372 987 4405 433 0
VCDI 0 2 9 97 485 9537 21708 13327
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118523 11363 296 528 1025 74 0 0
OW 58 1553 292 757 956 773 9 0
VODI 2 701 213 844 1420 2271 423 0
ODI 0 155 102 414 925 2625 201 0
CDI 0 44 41 538 746 3019 635 0
VCDI 0 12 21 160 575 7982 21140 13327


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