Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2024-10-10

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 381 2026 66 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 284 85 135 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 25 214 76 0 19 0
ODI 0 14 37 63 207 36 39 0
CDI 0 0 19 173 363 701 126 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 90 2330 13955 15352
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 381 1923 67 53 1 0 0 0
OW 0 200 57 152 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 103 20 114 114 20 0 0
ODI 0 75 13 54 120 116 4 0
CDI 0 66 69 132 175 538 179 0
VCDI 0 0 6 113 298 2393 13956 15352

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1577 387 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 3 4 2 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 9 28 3 0 0
CDI 0 11 0 16 83 164 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 63 380 299 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1573 368 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 4 43 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 5 8 2 0 0
CDI 0 10 5 19 35 24 1 0
VCDI 0 3 0 19 135 523 303 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4134 1970 40 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 112 151 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 269 98 0 56 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 281 29 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 91 728 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 327 1364 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4134 2000 93 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 82 48 236 82 7 0 0
VODI 0 18 13 100 230 109 0 0
ODI 0 2 6 27 79 187 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 79 479 399 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 302 1129 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1696 2114 62 63 2 0 0 0
OW 0 82 58 173 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 254 104 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 249 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 73 425 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 225 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1696 2108 74 208 42 0 0 0
OW 0 80 31 150 93 31 0 0
VODI 0 8 16 104 146 218 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 109 254 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 180 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 464 3880 188 174 0 0 0 0
OW 0 107 139 220 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 378 124 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 472 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 87 536 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 231 135 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 464 3935 271 482 73 0 0 0
OW 0 49 56 173 197 42 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 105 213 194 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 118 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 65 203 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 289 135 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 479 2906 82 114 0 0 0 0
OW 0 113 69 115 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 132 73 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 137 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 67 198 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 152 585 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 478 2826 87 138 0 0 0 0
OW 1 164 35 115 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 18 58 108 7 0 0
ODI 0 2 13 33 75 47 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 51 147 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 26 151 556 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4603 1583 29 49 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 0 31 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4603 1550 28 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 1 31 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11308 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11308 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7858 2073 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 159 85 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 30 171 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 27 143 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 127 296 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 399 185 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7858 2081 21 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 66 108 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 7 61 116 19 0 0
ODI 0 12 9 13 48 59 0 0
CDI 0 5 16 63 65 136 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 86 508 185 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5054 551 15 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 4 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 15 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 78 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5054 548 14 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 3 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 3 15 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 9 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 75 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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