Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2024-10-03

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-07

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 271 2537 72 58 2 0 0 0
OW 0 101 182 240 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 626 132 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 650 35 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 334 1393 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1838 16748 11442
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 271 2406 78 85 11 0 0 0
OW 0 213 117 216 60 11 0 0
VODI 0 19 57 454 199 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 217 383 169 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 437 873 538 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 2195 16304 11442

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1566 376 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 18 52 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 2 0 3 0 0
CDI 0 12 2 16 12 39 4 0
VCDI 0 5 0 0 47 336 604 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1504 369 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 80 25 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 23 0 0 0 27 9 0
VCDI 0 27 6 18 59 350 599 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5188 1813 67 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 57 65 156 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 243 145 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 212 110 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 375 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 595 845 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5188 1676 73 73 10 0 0 0
OW 0 190 52 140 37 8 0 0
VODI 0 4 10 162 94 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 128 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 111 176 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 834 854 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2314 2143 19 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 237 170 95 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 347 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 206 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2314 2061 23 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 296 119 99 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 55 273 51 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 166 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3401 2310 32 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 108 86 85 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 195 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 256 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 85 395 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 142 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3396 2197 57 46 0 0 0 0
OW 5 223 65 175 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 108 275 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 72 213 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 205 117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2334 1498 38 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 55 81 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 140 50 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 109 21 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 215 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 64 453 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2334 1465 50 59 2 0 0 0
OW 0 69 39 91 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 8 88 54 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 28 89 81 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 165 111 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 398 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5481 834 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5481 834 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11103 216 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11103 216 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8126 1880 49 99 3 0 0 0
OW 0 28 30 90 49 7 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 86 87 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 89 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 212 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 153 550 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8126 1864 62 154 75 27 0 0
OW 0 47 17 85 67 43 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 40 52 72 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 41 57 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 100 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 145 504 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4767 898 10 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 8 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 5 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 9 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4767 897 9 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 9 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 8 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 3 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 13 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15740 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15740 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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