Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-09-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139232 14495 307 245 3 1 0 0
OW 127 1174 514 1404 329 3 0 0
VODI 5 194 131 1268 1621 187 0 0
ODI 0 9 18 263 2282 1565 0 0
CDI 0 26 0 29 593 7885 550 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 47 9021 10590 621
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138539 14510 302 445 9 0 0 0
OW 123 1162 446 1509 395 0 0 0
VODI 3 164 104 1004 1906 218 0 0
ODI 0 30 6 162 1726 1566 2 0
CDI 0 27 2 36 323 6554 582 0
VCDI 0 13 0 0 61 7000 13865 1949
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139353 13969 252 206 2 0 0 0
OW 57 999 507 843 83 4 0 0
VODI 0 60 66 1610 774 23 0 0
ODI 0 18 4 183 1843 454 0 0
CDI 0 15 0 33 537 5953 651 0
VCDI 0 11 0 20 56 4649 18415 3093
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139583 13523 204 220 65 0 0 0
OW 46 1005 514 745 158 1 0 0
VODI 0 111 138 1319 771 38 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 296 1404 535 2 0
CDI 0 21 0 53 710 4674 349 0
VCDI 0 5 0 20 126 6867 15990 5238
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139583 13553 259 282 59 0 0 0
OW 46 999 455 714 181 1 0 0
VODI 0 89 139 1240 705 50 0 0
ODI 0 7 6 340 1395 444 2 0
CDI 0 22 0 58 771 4918 426 0
VCDI 0 4 0 19 123 6702 15913 5238

Date: 2024-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138902 13817 286 260 86 0 0 0
OW 82 725 416 1142 193 2 0 0
VODI 0 125 111 981 1157 38 0 0
ODI 0 38 12 255 1231 607 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 93 876 3828 402 0
VCDI 0 14 0 0 166 7787 15884 5217
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138925 13826 375 382 92 0 0 0
OW 59 691 317 1053 201 3 0 0
VODI 0 144 116 915 1039 42 0 0
ODI 0 42 16 295 1271 529 0 0
CDI 0 12 1 82 923 4121 443 0
VCDI 0 14 0 4 183 7567 15843 5217

Date: 2024-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138436 14114 216 144 11 0 0 0
OW 22 775 576 658 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 35 1560 447 35 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 175 1669 272 4 0
CDI 0 13 0 30 636 2789 51 0
VCDI 0 9 0 0 103 5038 21347 5473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138420 13491 267 286 91 1 0 0
OW 38 1135 332 816 224 88 0 0
VODI 0 259 163 972 796 235 0 0
ODI 0 31 60 311 1056 575 19 0
CDI 0 15 5 156 522 2339 1368 0
VCDI 0 14 0 26 248 4896 20015 5473

Date: 2024-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137794 14152 307 265 40 0 0 0
OW 37 869 429 797 163 15 0 0
VODI 0 39 94 1210 534 119 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 193 1210 314 2 0
CDI 0 10 0 32 603 2204 164 0
VCDI 0 2 1 10 142 5958 19916 7109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137771 13270 279 311 101 8 0 0
OW 60 1480 290 748 282 182 6 0
VODI 0 285 219 1012 662 363 46 0
ODI 0 18 37 291 971 534 69 0
CDI 0 20 5 94 399 2500 806 0
VCDI 0 8 1 51 277 5023 19155 7109

Date: 2024-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137552 13614 366 264 32 0 0 0
OW 80 823 494 967 204 17 0 0
VODI 0 54 116 1208 638 122 0 0
ODI 0 15 0 266 988 445 27 0
CDI 0 32 2 38 656 1869 587 0
VCDI 0 14 1 13 216 4943 19490 8590
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137522 12784 408 399 89 9 0 0
OW 110 1329 396 916 318 113 0 0
VODI 0 320 144 1004 762 397 23 0
ODI 0 36 24 320 765 617 127 0
CDI 0 20 2 82 500 1789 976 0
VCDI 0 63 5 35 300 4471 18978 8590


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