Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-12-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7174 4026 119 266 178 20 0 0
OW 22 515 149 538 265 54 0 0
VODI 3 295 49 495 520 128 15 0
ODI 0 15 8 160 871 238 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 786 608 219 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 262 3251 7551 32344
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6665 3787 85 173 115 15 0 0
OW 26 489 180 526 256 47 0 0
VODI 0 332 103 640 642 179 0 0
ODI 0 81 5 199 829 259 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 829 679 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 232 3496 10763 29484
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6433 3457 56 82 12 0 0 0
OW 6 620 137 343 110 64 0 0
VODI 0 197 79 953 613 98 7 0
ODI 0 5 0 178 773 221 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 368 1372 361 5
VCDI 0 0 0 32 266 4375 13405 26525
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6377 3369 84 53 2 0 0 0
OW 0 511 123 216 90 28 0 0
VODI 0 232 73 616 666 120 12 0
ODI 0 59 12 169 863 293 26 0
CDI 0 3 1 35 391 1269 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 219 3893 13034 28199
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6377 3416 103 86 19 0 0 0
OW 0 456 114 192 94 24 0 0
VODI 0 216 63 579 665 116 3 0
ODI 0 83 12 192 797 297 25 0
CDI 0 3 1 39 409 1114 177 1
VCDI 0 0 0 40 247 4052 13021 28198

Date: 2023-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6415 3194 58 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 503 103 238 112 6 0 0
VODI 0 154 82 507 583 136 20 0
ODI 0 67 53 227 711 195 78 0
CDI 0 22 28 45 772 493 340 1
VCDI 0 0 1 41 602 3456 11108 30786
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6415 3218 82 129 3 0 0 0
OW 0 485 99 207 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 141 58 493 631 112 2 0
ODI 0 69 54 238 678 215 48 0
CDI 0 27 30 44 729 500 342 0
VCDI 0 0 2 41 646 3459 11154 30787

Date: 2024-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6665 2993 52 55 3 0 0 0
OW 0 508 122 118 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 36 647 198 14 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 248 809 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 621 1540 35 1
VCDI 0 0 0 14 310 4110 11263 30684
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6665 2826 58 74 3 0 0 0
OW 0 446 54 132 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 243 83 343 364 43 0 0
ODI 0 20 16 268 537 282 24 0
CDI 0 1 0 255 522 1005 370 1
VCDI 0 0 0 50 499 4424 10904 30684

Date: 2024-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6718 2845 73 95 0 0 0 0
OW 12 214 75 337 22 0 0 0
VODI 9 36 21 324 373 25 0 0
ODI 1 2 0 119 640 116 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 9 629 1140 233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 780 5338 15304 25740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6710 2627 50 57 0 0 0 0
OW 14 273 44 156 19 0 0 0
VODI 7 166 54 305 220 46 0 0
ODI 7 27 20 236 395 389 26 0
CDI 2 4 1 116 706 766 458 2
VCDI 0 1 0 14 1104 5418 15053 25738

Date: 2024-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6667 2691 59 84 0 0 0 0
OW 14 211 67 197 34 0 0 0
VODI 5 6 10 306 355 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 526 182 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 370 972 207 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 941 4994 12686 29530
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6650 2615 74 136 9 0 0 0
OW 15 221 33 136 61 0 0 0
VODI 13 67 29 244 167 59 0 0
ODI 6 4 0 85 424 254 32 0
CDI 2 2 0 57 523 905 590 44
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1042 4968 12271 29492


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