Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74911 14997 463 578 191 20 0 0
OW 27 1148 431 1094 417 54 0 0
VODI 3 475 172 1293 990 161 15 0
ODI 1 70 61 691 1735 520 71 0
CDI 3 9 6 415 2007 2826 1019 25
VCDI 6 0 0 87 878 8123 19818 58932
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74368 14438 349 364 119 15 0 0
OW 55 1202 412 1076 334 47 0 0
VODI 3 629 212 1273 1134 196 0 0
ODI 0 201 81 621 1618 490 33 0
CDI 1 46 53 457 1948 2247 951 6
VCDI 9 0 0 83 829 8043 23148 57652
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74154 14208 243 236 23 0 0 0
OW 114 1567 474 707 186 64 0 0
VODI 10 408 278 1693 838 105 7 0
ODI 4 36 30 716 1468 326 41 0
CDI 1 6 4 387 1786 2620 443 5
VCDI 9 0 0 81 947 9324 25794 55400
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73961 14076 302 240 10 0 0 0
OW 179 1586 334 555 166 31 0 0
VODI 2 653 250 1150 838 143 12 0
ODI 0 170 91 546 1522 463 26 0
CDI 0 73 54 410 1465 2342 426 3
VCDI 10 43 30 312 1130 8516 24964 57659
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73960 14217 328 281 25 0 0 0
OW 180 1450 315 534 173 27 0 0
VODI 2 634 244 1090 836 140 3 0
ODI 0 197 96 569 1434 457 25 0
CDI 0 65 50 433 1451 2218 449 4
VCDI 10 38 28 306 1212 8653 24951 57658

Date: 2023-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73884 13762 244 334 14 0 0 0
OW 159 1613 274 485 207 13 0 0
VODI 3 651 228 1005 766 158 20 0
ODI 0 269 116 600 1134 433 78 0
CDI 0 174 101 371 1561 1720 778 7
VCDI 0 62 85 442 1680 8175 23057 60080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73876 13847 288 373 18 0 0 0
OW 168 1535 252 457 188 7 0 0
VODI 2 641 203 970 812 135 2 0
ODI 0 269 117 598 1080 418 48 0
CDI 0 181 114 389 1530 1715 799 6
VCDI 0 58 74 450 1734 8224 23084 60081

Date: 2024-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72874 14814 227 313 16 0 0 0
OW 154 1967 387 409 120 0 0 0
VODI 3 291 157 1405 464 22 0 0
ODI 0 75 46 571 1369 143 0 0
CDI 0 53 73 468 1645 2972 101 1
VCDI 0 4 5 156 1041 7947 23455 60995
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72871 14151 218 336 20 0 0 0
OW 158 1522 212 393 155 0 0 0
VODI 2 916 211 748 619 49 0 0
ODI 0 337 84 667 863 346 24 0
CDI 0 209 87 715 1454 2056 604 1
VCDI 0 69 83 463 1544 8633 22928 60995

Date: 2024-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72308 14867 307 311 0 0 0 0
OW 272 1097 451 856 90 0 0 0
VODI 107 287 157 1097 603 38 0 0
ODI 1 132 54 525 1055 176 0 0
CDI 0 44 16 395 1871 2302 441 2
VCDI 0 26 32 211 1531 9669 29245 54167
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72349 13767 262 208 1 0 0 0
OW 209 1371 231 552 74 0 0 0
VODI 119 751 265 825 374 55 0 0
ODI 9 310 112 780 694 454 27 0
CDI 2 209 98 706 2031 1501 726 4
VCDI 0 45 49 324 1976 10175 28933 54165

Date: 2024-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70916 14813 404 397 7 0 0 0
OW 209 1020 358 772 146 0 0 0
VODI 151 397 187 963 711 62 0 0
ODI 53 135 46 441 1019 248 0 0
CDI 0 143 29 324 1379 2232 668 28
VCDI 0 4 27 221 1540 8696 27742 58255
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70922 13666 339 428 21 0 0 0
OW 202 1514 248 464 187 0 0 0
VODI 170 663 220 811 411 92 0 0
ODI 33 343 87 510 887 360 35 0
CDI 2 285 108 582 1597 2203 1080 44
VCDI 0 41 49 323 1699 8583 27295 58239


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