Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-12-14

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-18

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 96 11 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 18 30 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 26 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 11 57 159 145 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 880 5456 29915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 58 1 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 4 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 18 10 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 23 22 81 115 82 7 0
VCDI 0 0 2 17 58 943 5451 29915

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 48 406 2665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 48 406 2665

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 751 9187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 751 9219

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 94 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 219 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 94 347 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 801 2315 1652
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 75 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 100 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 113 184 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 76 871 2315 1652

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 462 6757
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 462 6757

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 243 1330 3717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 246 1331 3717

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 182 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 169 110 51 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 64 394 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 72 388 80 0 0
CDI 0 10 9 54 150 430 12 0
VCDI 0 0 10 71 254 1039 2602 54
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 146 13 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 86 26 33 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 51 129 233 94 0 0
ODI 0 28 65 251 174 207 13 0
CDI 0 12 23 127 142 184 129 0
VCDI 0 13 23 101 298 1064 2472 54

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6063 3067 35 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 240 109 75 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 50 434 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 105 146 5 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 58 293 158 29 0
VCDI 0 1 0 1 83 196 90 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6063 2924 30 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 253 58 48 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 63 192 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 36 220 65 6 0 0
CDI 0 5 9 179 366 88 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 130 265 116 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5661 2052 9 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 325 77 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 42 163 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 9 72 96 1 0 0
CDI 0 2 9 95 212 320 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 29 1201 1250 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5661 2010 15 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 219 34 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 31 69 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 35 72 34 0 0 0
CDI 0 43 25 127 157 136 7 0
VCDI 0 0 6 64 149 1386 1245 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8490 2545 97 148 41 1 0 0
OW 4 32 54 86 69 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 107 92 31 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 109 34 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 418 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 134 298 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8494 2494 106 169 41 0 0 0
OW 0 67 33 104 126 24 0 0
VODI 0 16 15 50 111 75 15 0
ODI 0 0 3 30 40 130 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 62 316 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 85 92 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 709 69 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 21 37 104 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 148 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 134 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 92 193 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 60 729 2539 808
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 717 71 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 24 118 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 94 77 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 103 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 75 164 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 67 712 2524 808

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 200 865 86 311 227 144 0 0
OW 0 56 35 192 104 111 0 0
VODI 0 11 20 460 158 149 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 161 338 285 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 220 1180 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 31 1637 1483 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 200 864 82 338 316 394 0 0
OW 0 53 26 182 117 261 0 0
VODI 0 12 32 369 174 309 12 0
ODI 0 3 1 227 248 374 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 195 910 617 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 1258 880 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12254 1929 41 7 0 3 0 0
OW 2 281 41 76 8 19 0 0
VODI 0 30 5 155 50 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 214 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 100 268 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 162 21 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12249 1747 41 16 0 0 0 0
OW 7 356 37 110 9 26 0 0
VODI 0 131 9 103 103 19 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 39 132 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 124 177 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 229 21 0


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