Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12962 5890 374 207 14 0 0 0
OW 268 1076 279 559 68 1 0 0
VODI 90 488 137 933 376 45 0 0
ODI 1 65 10 216 405 282 3 0
CDI 0 27 3 93 226 1095 214 6
VCDI 0 3 16 86 170 1744 8156 24643
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11329 5818 404 690 7 0 0 0
OW 413 914 184 801 283 0 0 0
VODI 156 174 94 532 907 84 0 0
ODI 18 21 5 138 487 507 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 263 1049 656 1
VCDI 0 0 0 22 180 1605 6308 27102
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9750 5729 515 839 212 0 0 0
OW 231 462 264 898 398 2 0 0
VODI 28 70 19 839 539 32 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 315 618 161 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 452 1320 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 328 2502 7390 27142
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8977 4948 312 969 271 1 0 0
OW 100 782 222 709 456 114 0 0
VODI 13 301 75 675 628 188 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 362 621 324 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 84 472 748 205 3
VCDI 0 0 0 28 629 3316 6346 28339
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8960 4949 287 948 322 21 0 0
OW 120 791 217 668 377 126 0 0
VODI 10 291 103 713 635 178 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 377 629 325 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 90 481 751 154 7
VCDI 0 0 0 31 633 3290 6397 28335

Date: 2023-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8922 4385 174 574 431 80 0 0
OW 102 609 157 645 424 183 6 0
VODI 42 297 66 542 712 431 14 0
ODI 0 53 9 259 603 421 23 0
CDI 0 3 2 65 419 1280 529 0
VCDI 0 0 1 25 203 2907 5789 29844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8912 4344 179 631 484 84 2 0
OW 111 675 156 515 335 190 11 0
VODI 43 289 64 615 685 451 8 0
ODI 0 37 7 261 616 398 25 0
CDI 0 2 2 68 441 1335 497 0
VCDI 0 0 1 20 231 2844 5818 29844

Date: 2023-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8456 4355 139 372 227 147 0 0
OW 18 551 151 366 123 139 0 0
VODI 7 65 25 928 265 166 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 311 820 376 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 439 2081 72 40
VCDI 0 0 0 2 103 3695 6990 29759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8447 4026 127 415 323 395 0 0
OW 25 804 125 372 155 300 0 0
VODI 9 131 62 676 416 490 56 0
ODI 0 10 1 418 510 715 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 116 422 1411 644 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 151 3293 6309 29799

Date: 2023-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7778 4232 195 309 150 173 0 0
OW 11 596 147 393 171 171 0 0
VODI 0 114 55 431 526 235 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 131 663 469 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 422 1325 247 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 181 3169 9203 29685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7759 4013 182 288 196 465 0 0
OW 26 649 140 383 213 291 36 0
VODI 4 271 74 353 464 308 164 0
ODI 0 10 2 199 574 511 261 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 449 1046 689 5
VCDI 0 0 0 8 217 2921 8305 29696

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7174 4026 119 266 178 20 0 0
OW 22 515 149 538 265 54 0 0
VODI 3 295 49 495 520 128 15 0
ODI 0 15 8 160 871 238 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 786 608 219 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 262 3251 7551 32344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7154 3752 108 177 169 69 2 0
OW 34 672 141 544 327 243 63 0
VODI 11 338 72 514 642 377 98 0
ODI 0 86 4 155 634 315 212 0
CDI 0 3 0 99 740 502 451 15
VCDI 0 0 0 2 370 2793 6992 32351


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