Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83178 16946 848 915 142 25 0 0
OW 292 1463 441 1267 408 50 0 0
VODI 92 553 178 1424 1044 194 10 0
ODI 1 79 36 382 955 816 54 0
CDI 0 47 13 227 682 2506 628 6
VCDI 0 23 36 215 480 3383 21983 52721
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81786 16070 806 1305 69 23 0 0
OW 488 1358 354 1625 528 38 0 0
VODI 162 366 164 1158 1517 168 13 0
ODI 20 82 34 447 1075 931 49 0
CDI 3 84 20 241 975 2573 1064 2
VCDI 4 34 50 219 759 3302 19250 55527
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78925 16979 918 1333 289 1 0 0
OW 255 1356 578 1629 488 29 0 0
VODI 30 326 191 1904 981 93 0 0
ODI 1 67 54 653 1452 282 7 0
CDI 1 21 29 356 1305 3126 430 5
VCDI 8 7 14 186 907 4900 20214 54413
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78550 15325 630 1282 328 2 0 0
OW 118 1806 397 1422 617 135 0 0
VODI 14 747 283 1460 1250 329 0 0
ODI 0 155 87 850 1122 589 0 0
CDI 2 62 81 575 1634 2234 634 5
VCDI 8 24 23 162 1153 6487 19200 54961
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78526 15318 607 1266 382 21 0 0
OW 142 1811 394 1364 539 150 0 0
VODI 14 755 311 1521 1250 314 0 0
ODI 0 162 104 897 1136 600 1 0
CDI 1 49 65 529 1635 2266 591 9
VCDI 9 24 20 174 1162 6425 19242 54957

Date: 2023-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78688 14552 426 817 491 80 0 0
OW 130 1495 298 1243 595 197 6 0
VODI 47 822 245 1284 1569 516 16 0
ODI 0 273 94 608 1367 732 40 0
CDI 1 126 130 593 1428 2502 944 7
VCDI 9 46 37 226 915 7242 18893 55013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78668 14568 431 902 535 84 2 0
OW 146 1502 306 1101 491 202 11 0
VODI 51 813 216 1291 1497 545 12 0
ODI 0 281 117 682 1438 684 47 0
CDI 0 113 124 569 1416 2556 907 6
VCDI 10 37 36 226 988 7198 18920 55014

Date: 2023-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78013 14704 385 589 271 148 0 0
OW 43 1642 588 783 205 156 0 0
VODI 18 168 211 2357 599 200 9 0
ODI 0 25 21 671 1945 547 9 0
CDI 4 19 30 325 1549 4047 199 40
VCDI 6 2 10 79 584 8128 19582 55832
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77978 13994 406 696 367 395 0 0
OW 74 1661 325 815 328 329 0 0
VODI 21 651 246 1305 970 684 74 0
ODI 1 147 158 1086 1082 1157 86 0
CDI 2 94 79 664 1496 2603 1078 0
VCDI 8 13 31 238 910 8058 18561 55872

Date: 2023-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76566 14867 510 572 168 173 0 0
OW 23 1285 465 1055 270 172 0 0
VODI 4 296 187 1409 1051 265 0 0
ODI 0 31 31 783 1649 770 12 0
CDI 6 6 14 277 1667 3144 441 16
VCDI 4 0 4 119 938 7999 22436 55058
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76500 13992 456 567 222 465 0 0
OW 82 1546 318 834 377 295 36 0
VODI 11 738 272 1033 849 460 183 0
ODI 0 157 94 872 1422 1000 292 0
CDI 5 43 40 656 1588 2292 1036 5
VCDI 5 9 31 253 1285 8011 21342 55069

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74911 14997 463 578 191 20 0 0
OW 27 1148 431 1094 417 54 0 0
VODI 3 475 172 1293 990 161 15 0
ODI 1 70 61 691 1735 520 71 0
CDI 3 9 6 415 2007 2826 1019 25
VCDI 6 0 0 87 878 8123 19818 58932
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74803 14137 401 576 218 69 2 0
OW 127 1559 309 933 526 253 63 0
VODI 11 726 283 1081 1032 462 105 0
ODI 0 217 98 708 1368 720 362 0
CDI 5 55 29 628 1795 1854 1120 16
VCDI 5 5 13 232 1279 8346 19271 58941


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