Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108006 11381 494 796 63 32 0 0
OW 20 808 362 903 538 57 0 0
VODI 2 97 118 920 997 347 3 0
ODI 0 3 16 383 1155 588 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 137 1430 1248 318 7
VCDI 0 0 0 16 1152 6873 20595 34793
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105776 11959 485 782 115 0 0 0
OW 26 1046 288 868 432 35 0 0
VODI 10 250 247 851 904 266 0 0
ODI 0 29 38 397 980 596 54 0
CDI 0 2 9 175 1061 1874 493 28
VCDI 0 0 4 77 597 8210 21396 34383
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106043 10920 518 507 82 0 0 0
OW 84 876 392 978 159 29 0 0
VODI 9 74 126 1344 599 21 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 415 1296 252 0 4
CDI 0 1 0 121 940 1934 236 47
VCDI 0 0 0 18 335 6470 22285 37621
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103680 11238 449 867 61 0 0 0
OW 87 797 260 1238 381 42 0 0
VODI 3 170 139 986 955 68 7 0
ODI 0 57 19 404 1152 295 4 0
CDI 0 6 4 132 904 1813 392 2
VCDI 0 0 0 42 402 5833 24998 36856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103659 11254 453 951 110 2 0 0
OW 107 780 248 1179 366 31 0 0
VODI 4 168 144 937 987 79 7 0
ODI 0 55 20 396 1125 312 3 0
CDI 0 11 6 168 856 1724 323 2
VCDI 0 0 0 38 411 5903 25068 36856

Date: 2023-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102090 11442 348 446 52 0 0 0
OW 157 1078 422 1238 262 44 0 0
VODI 28 266 167 1190 859 145 4 0
ODI 0 36 17 598 893 361 0 0
CDI 0 13 1 239 974 1385 259 20
VCDI 0 1 0 49 630 5346 24926 38757
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102072 11439 380 568 69 0 0 0
OW 154 1047 367 1107 316 50 0 0
VODI 49 300 184 1167 852 127 4 0
ODI 0 37 23 593 887 441 0 0
CDI 0 13 1 242 935 1313 273 15
VCDI 0 0 0 83 611 5350 24912 38762

Date: 2023-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101302 11655 340 329 30 0 0 0
OW 117 1126 472 757 142 14 0 0
VODI 25 131 86 1798 676 45 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 371 2011 178 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 56 1052 2224 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 427 5858 25869 37563
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101228 11230 380 461 35 0 0 0
OW 182 1063 285 959 369 38 0 0
VODI 34 521 171 1051 995 78 0 0
ODI 0 98 55 485 1169 417 0 0
CDI 0 15 9 294 1050 1491 89 0
VCDI 0 2 0 63 720 6295 25848 37563

Date: 2023-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98756 12833 459 731 181 0 0 0
OW 65 659 340 898 432 15 0 0
VODI 5 159 113 929 1159 50 0 0
ODI 0 14 21 345 1579 313 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 105 1273 2271 49 1
VCDI 0 0 0 65 559 6287 25352 38722
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98714 12347 348 658 181 0 0 0
OW 105 850 307 762 546 39 0 0
VODI 7 356 206 827 1275 178 0 0
ODI 0 93 54 500 1273 534 0 0
CDI 0 18 15 224 1303 1750 42 3
VCDI 0 2 5 102 605 6435 25359 38720

Date: 2023-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97283 12912 369 570 154 0 0 0
OW 171 597 339 899 580 57 0 0
VODI 33 111 75 788 1116 107 0 0
ODI 0 20 25 237 1400 369 2 0
CDI 0 9 7 150 1312 2488 196 10
VCDI 0 0 0 145 426 5434 25162 41190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97198 12486 356 700 244 7 0 0
OW 252 807 269 569 489 113 0 0
VODI 35 266 126 799 1251 190 3 0
ODI 2 60 36 359 1362 705 53 1
CDI 0 23 21 175 1157 2072 134 11
VCDI 0 7 7 187 485 5368 25170 41188


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